Hockey is a fluid and complicated game. Sabermetrics’ VORP and OPS and WAR seem to fit baseball well, if a bit coldly. Hockey doesn’t lend itself to discrete analysis the same way — for baseball, at its core, is a very individual sport when compared to hockey’s constant interaction between players on the ice, not to mention 18 players on each team changing lines on the fly.

Many have strong opinions about who among the Washington Capitals steps up (and what “stepping up” even means) when it counts. Data analysis cannot capture things like leadership, chemistry, and the myriad small-yet-crucial plays that don’t appear on the score sheet. But hockey does have tangible measures of success beyond wins and losses, and a closer look can sometimes reveal conventional wisdom to be not as wise as one thought.

Stats aren’t a panacea for sports debate, but sometimes delving into the numbers can shed a different light on an analysis. I will try to avoid, as Andrew Lang once wrote, using statistics “as a drunken man uses lampposts — for support rather than for illumination.”

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at how the Washington Capitals’ Young Guns perform in the regular season vs. the post-season—because really, as most fans will agree at this point in the team’s progression, the regular season is just a warm up. (I’ve added Brooks Laich to the mix, because of his leadership role and his new salary. Let’s call them Young Guns II… cue “Blaze of Glory“.)

What I wanted to see was which of the Capitals’ key players elevate their games when it matters most, and which players wilt in crunch time.  That these Capitals have played relatively few playoff games thus far in their careers limits sampling validity somewhat; and as the investment mantra goes, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Nonetheless, let’s examine a few basic hockey stats, comparing the Young Guns’ scoring in the regular-season to the post-season.

The first three stat columns are regular season: Goals per Game, Assists per Game, Points per Game. The next three columns are those same stats in the playoffs (hence the leading “P”). 37 post-season games for all but Green, who has 36.

Laich sees the biggest jump, lending credence to the idea that it’s the muckers and grinders, the ones who are “willing to get their noses dirty,” who flourish in the playoffs (c.f. Joel Ward).

What about penalties? After all, you can’t score from the sin bin, and too many penalties lead to opponent goals and exhausted penalty killers. Mike Green has a whopping 47 PIM in 36 playoff games, or about 1:20 per game—a dramatic increase from his 45 seconds-per-game regular season average.

One could argue that defensemen must be more physical in playoff hockey, so perhaps Green’s post-season penalty proclivity makes sense (Jeff Schultz, for example, increased from 1/3 PIM per game to 2/3 PIM). Unfortunately, Green’s +/- numbers plummet from regular to post season, from +.15 per game to -.17.

So while Green’s scoring climbs slightly in the playoffs, his penalties increase while his +/- drops. For comparison’s sake: Ovechkin’s average +/- rises in the post-season, so it’s not a team-wide phenomenon.

Back to penalties: Ovechkin has spent 18 minutes in the post-season penalty box. Semin has twice as many with 36 playoff PIM. Semin commits infractions at the same rate in the regular season: roughly 1 PIM per game. Ovechkin, with his “wrecking ball” reputation and hard-hitting style leading to a few 5-minute majors and 10-minute misconducts, averages 30% fewer penalty minutes than Semin in the regular season, and 50% fewer in April and May.

What does all this number-crunching suggest? The clearest conclusion is that Alex Ovechkin plays his best hockey when it matters most. Brooks Laich can say the same. The other three Young Guns, to this point in their careers, have not done so.

Bringing the Stanley Cup to D.C. will require all the Capitals to play well, of course, not just the Big 5… and even then it takes a lot of luck. But the five players who lead the team—and account for roughly half the team’s salary expense—simply must elevate their play when it’s all on the line. All of them.

They have the talent. I believe they can pull together and do what they must. But until they do, there will be no joy in Mudville. The numbers, one might say, speak for themselves.

[kudos to Greg Henesy, who started me down this path.]

In this clip, you’ll see how carbon-fiber EASTON hockey sticks are created . . . it’s a pretty cool six minutes, particularly the automated slap-shot machine in the final testing (I want one!). Too bad it only shoots at 75 m.p.h.—perhaps that’s why Ovie’s and Green’s cannon-blasts seems to snap their sticks like twigs so often.

UPDATE: I spoke to the Easton Hockey folks, and this episode was filmed at their plant in Mexico. The staff there have their own roller-hockey team — ice not being too common in Tijuana — and as you can imagine they have better equipment than most roller hockey teams.

Netminder Jose Theodore is obviously a critical piece of the Caps’ playoff puzzle, and the subject of much discussion. Theodore’s preparation is more personal—oh, he’ll work with coaches and trade ideas with teammates of course, but it’s more of an internal approach. JT is usually pretty quiet, until Tomas Jagr-I-mean-Plekanec riled him up that is. But generally his playoff prep mirrors that thoughtful demeanor.

With Washington punching their playoff ticket so early in the season, Theodore had plenty of time to prepare. “I’ve been approaching the last 20 games like the playoffs. Every game I am trying to do the details,” Theodore said. “You can’t get away from the details and that is what I am focusing on right now, controlling rebounds and challenging the shooters.”

Judging by his performance in Game 1, I would say that Jose got some of those details down and has his focus in the right place. If it ain’t broke…

Would it really surprise anyone if I said that Walker likes to talk about his preparation? I think he is a younger (although not by much) version of Gabby. Unlike Theo, Walker is in the same type of mood regardless of outcome, although Walker’s is a bit chattier. His playoff preparation involves that chatty lifestyle, even if he doesn’t think it can help all that much.

“I talk to people in general and people who have been around the game and even the old guys like broadcasters, [we] talk about experiences,” Walker said. But then he minimized what talking can do. “Its like somebody said, you have to get experience yourself, you can’t get it from talking.”

Walker summed up the regular season perfectly when he said, “Now it starts back at zero, what you did [in the regular season] doesn’t mean anything anymore.” Sure, you can learn from what you did well over the last 82 games, but it won’t mean much if you put up a big goose egg in playoffs — words that the team’s captain (and others) could take to heart for Game 2.

For most players though, it is all about their coaches and teammates. A sign of a good team is one that can lift each other up and pull their comrades out of slumps. Washington has a solid team in the locker room, so it is no surprise that several players turn with in for their preparation.

“I think we have a great team here,” Nicklas Backstrom said. “We are talking to each other and we have some experienced guys on the team and we will take advantage of that.” Teams that win it all generally have a strong veteran presence. Players like Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison are terrific assets for young players like Backstrom looking to learn from others’ experience.

Players who were acquired in the middle of the season sometimes find fitting in with the team awkward. New players may not have had time to form any significant bonds with their new teammates; this is where the coaching staff comes in. A sign of a good coach is one who can relate to any player, even the ones who spent most of the season on another team. From what some of the newest Caps are saying, it seems like Bruce is that kind of coach.

“I think our coaches give us a pretty good game plan of what we need and who we play,” Jason Chimera said. “You talk to some people, but you don’t want to over think things otherwise you are thinking out there and not playing.”

A coach who knows what a player needs and can focus them on the ice, is one destined for greatness. In Chimera’s eyes, Bruce can do just that.

Players have their own unique ways of preparing themselves for the grueling playoff run. Mike Green, Eric Fehr and the others on the 2006 Hershey Bears team have the coach that got them to the NHL with, something not many players can say.

It’s pretty rare for a player to win a Calder Cup, then to have their AHL coach join them in the bigs a couple years later for the NHL playoffs. For Green, playing for Boudreau again is something special.

“When [Boudreau] speaks I really listen,” Green said. “[It's great] because you get familiar with him and he is familiar with what my game is. We developed a relationship before we came together to the NHL level, and I think that helps.”

For the Caps, players’ preparation methods vary, but it’s the results that count. Tonight we will see just how focused and prepared the Caps really are.

The National Hockey League announced today that Washington Capitals defenseman Mike Green has been suspended for three games, without pay, for an incident that took place during NHL game #802 against the Florida Panthers on January 29.

At 4:24 of the first period, Green delivered an elbow to the head of Panthers’ forward Michael Frolik. Green was assessed a minor penalty for elbowing on the play.

Under the terms of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and based on his average salary, Green will forfeit $81,606.21. The money goes to the Players’ Emergency Assistance Fund.

Green will miss Washington’s next three games – Jan. 31 against Tampa Bay, Feb. 2 at Boston and Feb. 4 at the New York Rangers. He will be eligible to return Feb. 5 against Atlanta.

So what are your thoughts: a fair punishment for a dangerous play? Overreaction by the league in light of the Cormier debacle? Something else?

With time winding down, Nicklas Backstrom took a somewhat foolish(and controversial) cross checking call, which, after Ilya Bryzgalov was pulled, gave the Coyotes a two-man advantage. Behind strong play from rookie Michal Neuvirth and a few great individual defensive plays, the Caps pulled it out. The game was capped with a great feed from Alex Semin to Alexander Ovechkin for an empty net goal in the final 10 seconds.

• A big key to the victory was the Caps’ special teams. They were a letter perfect 5-for-5 on the penalty kill, following a perfect performance in Pittsburgh Thursday night, and 2-for-7 on the power play.

• Tom Poti won the hardhat for the night and for good reason, as he was in on seemingly almost every important defensive play. Karl Alzner had a strong night as well, and his partner Shaone Morrisonn had nothing but good things to say about him, noting in the postgame Alzner’s fundamentals and his play development recognition. Morrisonn also said he was there to offer words of encouragement to his partner as the game went on.

• Kind words also have to be offered for Michal Neuvirth. In his previous two starts earlier this month he got yanked in both. Saturday night, he played with poise, appearing to shake off any doubts or dings to his confidence from his previous outings, and he had to come up clutch on a few Capitals’ breakdowns throughout. Alzner, John Carlson, and Neuvirth at times have all played beyond their years for the Capitals in recent weeks, especially during this six-game win streak.

• While the young guns on defense have been effective, Mike Green’s lackluster play from last night cannot be overlooked. After suffering a mysterious “hand injury” and missing the game against Pittsburgh, Green put up a -1 with three shots, three missed shots, and had four giveaways. On top of all of that, when the Caps needed to buckle down late in the last two minutes he was throwing haymakers in front of the Washington net. He has put a nice season together in the big picture, but nights like last night are a far below his standard.

• A few notes about Saturday night’s press box. Bloggers outnumbered traditional print media by a 4-to-1 margin last night. I don’t know if you want to characterize that as alarming or not, but keep in mind that there was an overwhelming amount of print media present against Philadelphia and Detroit earlier in the week, and many local media even traveled to Pittsburgh, and so the precipitous dropoff last night was conspicuous.

The Phoenix Coyotes are a tremenous, tremendous story this season, lodged in fifth place in the Western Conference, built with an abundance of speed and impressive young skill — they’re a team built to win in the playoffs, in fact. The Coyotes are a typical team for the West, with a strong blueline that not only defends well but can also produce points at the other end. And so it seems local media has a long way to go still in developing a savviness for realizing that meaningful and entertaining and newsworthy hockey isn’t restricted to just the marquee games.

Also of note about last night’s media coverage was that fans in Phoenix were unable to see the game as there was no TV coverage for them: the Caps’ Nate Ewell  also pointed out that there was radio broadcast of the game for Arizona hockey fans but no video broadcast of the game, which is really a shame given how appealing this up and coming club is.

• Last night’s game marked the end of a tough stretch for the Caps in which they either played a perennial playoff contender or a big rival. On Tuesday the team travels to New York to face the Islanders and kick off a stretch where five of their next seven games are against teams who are currently not in the playoffs(NYI, Boston, Florida, Tampa Bay and Atlanta). If they continue to play the way they are and can get a few guys back from injury the Caps can put some nice distance between them and the New Jersey Devils for first overall in the Eastern conference.

• Also worth noting about last night, the Hershey Bears completed a two-game sweep of Manitoba by a final score of 8-2. On the weekend in the series Hershey scored 16 goals and allowed just five. John Carlson, Keith Aucoin, Oscar Osala, Jay Beagle, Andrew Gordon, Chris Bourque and Boyd Kane all scored on Saturday night, while Gordon, Aucoin Bourque, Kyle Wilson, Beagle, Osala, Steve Pinizzotto and Andrew Joudrey scored on Friday. Manitoba brought some injury issues to Chocolatetown, but still, the Bears these days appear able to easily outscore the Redskins on any given night. The Bears have now a club record 14 games in a row at home, and Saturday night also established a new record for attendance at Giant Center with 10,844.

• The wins gave Hershey a total of 70 points on the year, which is 17 more than the number two team in the East Division, the Albany River Rats. Winning sure seems to be in the air in the Washington hockey community.

• “There was too much pressure for Varlamov to start in New York, so I wanted to see him in game 2, and see how he does.  We had a lot of faith in him at that point.”
• Is there a lot of pressure on Varlamov?  “He’s so quiet, I don’t know if it’s affecting him; he has a good poker face, seems very calm.  Quite frankly, I haven’t talked to him. But our goalie coach talked to him and says he’s OK.”
• What has Chris Clark’s impact been on the team?  “He was completely positive despite being out of the lineup for most of two years.  He really stayed involved with the team.  I didn’t know what he was going to bring to the last game, but I thought he played a really good game.  Nobody works as hard as Chris to stay in game shape.  The guys as a whole were really pleased to see him back.  He was the perfect influx of energy for game 7.”
• “Our goal isn’t to win the first round; our goal is to win all the rounds.  We have to play a lot better if we’re going to win.”
• “We didn’t play the New York Islanders, we played the New York Rangers, one of the top defensive teams in the league.  You don’t expect guys to average a lot of points per game.  That was the best 7-game stretch we had since I’ve been here; we did everything right except score points.”
• Regarding Mike Green’s efforts in the first round:  “I don’t expect him to score every game.  He was great.  If Chris Pronger had done that, they would have lauded him as the MVP of the series.”
• How were you able to coach, with Game 5 being so loud?  “Instruction is pretty difficult, other than screaming at them.  For line changes, you gotta tap them and make sure they’re looking at you, and the other coaches repeat what I’m saying because it’s so hard to hear.”
• What about Tom Poti?  “He’s the one defenseman who has a lot of experience.  He’s played in a lot of tough buildings.  He’s stepped up his game tremendously in the playoffs as we knew he could; he’s playing up to the potential I thought he’d be playing at the whole year.”

Last night at Verizon Center brought the NHL debut of Oskar Osala, recently named the American Hockey League’s Player of the Month for November. Osala scored 16 goals in 26 games with Hershey prior to his callup, 3rd among all skaters in the ‘A’ and best among all rookies. Last night my new OFB colleagues and I wondered who was the last Caps’ prospect to be promoted, in-season, who brought something like the buzz that Oskar has this week. Folks around town are excited about what the 6 ’4, 217-lb. Finland native (The Caps’ fourth-round choice, 97th overall, in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft) has accomplished already during his rookie season of pro hockey in North America.

We asked a couple of Caps’ historians in the Verizon Center press box last night to identify a prospect from the past whose buzz reminded them of Osala’s, and frankly, it took them a while to identify anyone. Whom would you have chosen? Andrew Brunette? Pat Peake? Yogi Sjevkovsky?   

Remember that elite talents like Ovechkin and Backstrom never saw apprentice duty on the farm. Mike Green, while an All Star talent today, enjoyed solid development with the Bears, but there was little in his stay there that suggested his dynamic game of today. Anyway, I took notes last night in the Phone Booth; here’s what I observed:     

• With 14 shifts and just over 11 minutes on the ice Osala had a solid opportunity to get acclimated to the speed and pace of the NHL. He did not get to experience time on the power play or the penalty kill, but Head Coach Bruce Boudreau hardly seemed gunshy about sending him over the boards.
• Yes #48 looked nervous in the first period — the coach said as much in the postgame afterwards — and at times early on he seemed hesitant when the puck came to him, once or twice failing to drive to the net. Inside the Caps’ zone he maintained his lane while being modestly involved the defensive play.
• Osala came out in the second and looked like a completely different player. This, too, Coach Boudreau noted after the game. His puck pursuit was strong, and even got involved in the physical play. Towards the middle of the third we saw him slide down into the slot a couple times, where he plays best.
• Even with his more confident play in the second and third he still looked a little out of place — as he probably should have. He never seemed to fully gel with his line partners, Brooks Laich and Matt Bradley. Again, like you’d expect. But there wasn’t anything to suggest that he was in over his head.
• His puck movement and passing were touch and go through most of the game. With the puck he appeared somewhat hesitant and unsure, but I didn’t notice any glaring turnovers, either. It’s likely that his coach asked him to play a simple game, and by and large he did.
• One particular bright spot came in the third when Osala got the puck in behind the defenseman and laid a solid shot on Manny Fernandez. There was no hesitation in his shot and he seemed to put it where he wanted to.
• Overall Osala had a decent performance overall, I thought. A Bruins’ player never burned him, and none of his mistakes were costly. It’s still hard to tell whether or not he is able to play in the NHL yet. What he showed us towards the end of the night though is promising.

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