The Russian Connection gets it done against the Rangers (photo: Mike Rucki)

Based on tonight’s performance, the Caps will be just fine with that.

In the post-game press conference, Coach Hunter was asked if this game was similar to the Caps’ victory over Nashville. “This is more heated because it’s a rivalry,” he replied. “It’s more emotional, and the guys rose to the occasion.”

A game that started out hesitantly — as if both teams were aware of the HBO cameras and trying to avoid mistakes — turned into a dominant performance by the Capitals. After just two shots in the first six minutes, the floodgates opened and 55 shots were on target by the end of the game. The important number, of course is 4: Four even-strength goals for a Capitals team that hasn’t given its netminders much support of late.

Alex Ovechkin entered the game on a point-per-game pace (14g, 11a) in his last 25 contests against the Rangers. He’s improved on that rate slightly with his 2 assists, both on beautiful shots by Alexander Semin, though didn’t find the net himself.

The Capitals’ forecheck was in fine form, stymieing the Rangers’ attempts to exit their zone or move through the neutral zone. Two of the Caps’ goals were direct results of their aggressive forecheck — the first a sweet steal by Marcus Johansson, who dished to Jeff Halpern and crashed the net as Halpern shot to pot the rebound.

The Caps’ second forecheck-created goal started with a sweet open-ice hit by Ovechkin; Backstrom collected the puck and fired a smooth pass to a streaking Semin.

Just seconds earlier the Rangers had a golden opportunity to tie the game at two apiece, when John Carlson (whose first-period stumble led to the Rangers only tally on the night) misplayed the puck. Yet the Rangers failed to convert, and Semin,with a burst of speed, made them pay for their missed opportunity. And in a blink, what could have been 2-2 became 3-1.

But the feel-good goal of the game goes to Troy Brouwer. He was having a rough night, whiffing in front of an open net on the power play despite a tic-tac-toe pass from Ovechkin to Backstrom to Brouwer. Later, a two-on-one break with him and Ovechkin did not yield a shot on goal; then Brouwer missed another great chance down low. But his persistence paid off, as he camped at the top of the crease and redirected a Carlson shot into the net. Brouwer burst into a huge grin after the goal — you could almost hear his sigh of relief from the press box.

The Capitals’ PK units stood tall and denied the Rangers on five opportunities (including another pesky Delay of Game… a lucky fan got a souvenir lofted over the defensive-zone glass for the second game in a row), including two late in the third frame. “It was a commitment by the guys. You see the blocked shots out there, and the puck does hurt! But they committed to it . . . that’s commitment to win.” Hunter also complimented Vokoun, who put in a solid performance despite ample bench time of late.

There were problems: a few bad passes by Ovechkin led to odd-man rushes the other way. The Rangers paid very little price for getting in Vokoun’s crease, nor for blatantly snowing him more than once.

But the team played as, well, a team, and the scoreboard rewarded their efforts with a much-needed victory.

Officials do at times have a disproportionate impact on a contest’s outcome (Exhibit A), and fans may revile the men in stripes, but referees themselves are fans of the game and work hard to get the calls right.

Kerry Fraser’s paperback Final Call: Hockey Stories from a Legend in Stripes hit the shelves this week, and Fraser provides fascinating insights into being a professional referee. He shares some unique stories from his up-close view of thirty years of professional hockey.

For the most part, Ol’ Helmet Hair succeeds—yet he still missed some calls, as we Capitals faithful who chanted “Fraser Sucks!” might expect. And, as Fraser admits, he heard those chants loud and clear throughout his career.

Fraser is at his best when telling in-game anecdotes. For instance, he discusses Matthew Barnaby’s removable silver tooth. One of the infamous agitator’s tricks was to pop the tooth into his palm if an opposing player’s stick came near his face, then turn to the referee and show the tooth that the high stick had just “broken.” Apparently it worked quite a few times, even once on Fraser, until word got around to the other refs. Makes you want to smack Barnaby more than ever, eh?

Fraser’s mediation of on-ice conflicts gives one more respect for the man. Mind you, Fraser has a sizable ego, and no matter how much he admits it the ego can be grating at times. Fraser considers a referee as more than just an assessor of penalties, but also as a kind of “morality police” to keep things fair and above-board.

Some would argue that morality is not the purview of an NHL referee (and for the most part I agree). But sometimes that expanded role yielded positive results. For instance, Fraser brokered a peace between Tyson Nash and Theo Fleury, after Nash hurled personal insults at Fleury that well and truly crossed the line — we’re talking “Slap Shot” territory without the humor. During the first intermission, Fraser spoke to Nash’s coach Joel Quenneville (who, to his credit, immediately offered to bench Nash), and the next period began with Nash giving Fleury a heartfelt apology. Regardless of how one feels about this aspect of Fraser’s refereeing, it certainly makes for good reading.

Fraser includes a few Washington Capitals tidbits, such as Dale Hunter telling him, “Frase, if you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin’!'” Fraser also looks back at a bench-clearing brawl in the old Capital Center, with Mike Gartner and Rod Langway getting into the fray. And his description of the magical Fenway Park atmosphere for the 2010 Winter Classic is truly terrific.

While Fraser’s ego is apparent throughout the book, he also pokes fun at himself in a charming way — such as including the above pic of 5’7″ (with good posture) Fraser next to Zdeno Chara, or his “Fraser’s Hair through the Ages” photos.

As for some of the book’s missed calls? Fraser would have been better served to have hired a co-writer, or a more stringent editor. To be fair, Fraser’s writing is better than one might expect from a life-long athlete — and hockey refs’ conditioning is almost as intense as players’ (minus the hitting of course), so calling them athletes seems reasonable.

But boy! Does he! Enjoy! Exclamation Points! And he leans a bit too much on phrases like “The apple sure doesn’t fall far from the tree!” He occasionally detours into Family and Faith — fine topics, to be sure, but not ones to bring up too often in a book of, as the title says, “Hockey Stories”. The book’s opening chapter, detailing his emotions during his final game, is a logical starting point but a bit too maudlin.

Final Call really hits its stride about 50 pages in, when Fraser discusses The Missed Call, Wayne Gretzky’s uncalled high-sticking in Game 6 of the 1993 Campbell Conference Finals that some say led to the Kings’ victory over the Leafs. From that point forward, Fraser’s hockey stories get most of the focus — which is exactly where the focus should be.

Fraser’s writing is occasionally shaky, and the first-person narrative keeps Fraser as the clear center of every anecdote he relates to the reader. As a memoir of sorts that’s understandable, of course; but there were times the “I”s seemed to dominate the page.

Overall, though, the pros of Final Call outweigh the cons—it’s a worthwhile read to experience the National Hockey League through one of its most respected and controversial referees. Love him or hate him, he’s certainly experienced some amazing hockey moments. Recommended.

[Note: The extra chapter added to the paperback edition is interesting, including a discussion of his ongoing crusade to make the NHL protect players against head injuries. But the hardcover is basically the same book, and at the moment the bargain-price hardcover is cheaper on Amazon than the paperback version.]

Hockey is a fluid and complicated game. Sabermetrics’ VORP and OPS and WAR seem to fit baseball well, if a bit coldly. Hockey doesn’t lend itself to discrete analysis the same way — for baseball, at its core, is a very individual sport when compared to hockey’s constant interaction between players on the ice, not to mention 18 players on each team changing lines on the fly.

Many have strong opinions about who among the Washington Capitals steps up (and what “stepping up” even means) when it counts. Data analysis cannot capture things like leadership, chemistry, and the myriad small-yet-crucial plays that don’t appear on the score sheet. But hockey does have tangible measures of success beyond wins and losses, and a closer look can sometimes reveal conventional wisdom to be not as wise as one thought.

Stats aren’t a panacea for sports debate, but sometimes delving into the numbers can shed a different light on an analysis. I will try to avoid, as Andrew Lang once wrote, using statistics “as a drunken man uses lampposts — for support rather than for illumination.”

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at how the Washington Capitals’ Young Guns perform in the regular season vs. the post-season—because really, as most fans will agree at this point in the team’s progression, the regular season is just a warm up. (I’ve added Brooks Laich to the mix, because of his leadership role and his new salary. Let’s call them Young Guns II… cue “Blaze of Glory“.)

What I wanted to see was which of the Capitals’ key players elevate their games when it matters most, and which players wilt in crunch time.  That these Capitals have played relatively few playoff games thus far in their careers limits sampling validity somewhat; and as the investment mantra goes, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Nonetheless, let’s examine a few basic hockey stats, comparing the Young Guns’ scoring in the regular-season to the post-season.

The first three stat columns are regular season: Goals per Game, Assists per Game, Points per Game. The next three columns are those same stats in the playoffs (hence the leading “P”). 37 post-season games for all but Green, who has 36.

Laich sees the biggest jump, lending credence to the idea that it’s the muckers and grinders, the ones who are “willing to get their noses dirty,” who flourish in the playoffs (c.f. Joel Ward).

What about penalties? After all, you can’t score from the sin bin, and too many penalties lead to opponent goals and exhausted penalty killers. Mike Green has a whopping 47 PIM in 36 playoff games, or about 1:20 per game—a dramatic increase from his 45 seconds-per-game regular season average.

One could argue that defensemen must be more physical in playoff hockey, so perhaps Green’s post-season penalty proclivity makes sense (Jeff Schultz, for example, increased from 1/3 PIM per game to 2/3 PIM). Unfortunately, Green’s +/- numbers plummet from regular to post season, from +.15 per game to -.17.

So while Green’s scoring climbs slightly in the playoffs, his penalties increase while his +/- drops. For comparison’s sake: Ovechkin’s average +/- rises in the post-season, so it’s not a team-wide phenomenon.

Back to penalties: Ovechkin has spent 18 minutes in the post-season penalty box. Semin has twice as many with 36 playoff PIM. Semin commits infractions at the same rate in the regular season: roughly 1 PIM per game. Ovechkin, with his “wrecking ball” reputation and hard-hitting style leading to a few 5-minute majors and 10-minute misconducts, averages 30% fewer penalty minutes than Semin in the regular season, and 50% fewer in April and May.

What does all this number-crunching suggest? The clearest conclusion is that Alex Ovechkin plays his best hockey when it matters most. Brooks Laich can say the same. The other three Young Guns, to this point in their careers, have not done so.

Bringing the Stanley Cup to D.C. will require all the Capitals to play well, of course, not just the Big 5… and even then it takes a lot of luck. But the five players who lead the team—and account for roughly half the team’s salary expense—simply must elevate their play when it’s all on the line. All of them.

They have the talent. I believe they can pull together and do what they must. But until they do, there will be no joy in Mudville. The numbers, one might say, speak for themselves.

[kudos to Greg Henesy, who started me down this path.]

via rusherman

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Joel Ward is his life motto.

Undrafted, college graduate, AHL veteran, the Capitals’ newly signed Ward knows the non-glamorous side to being a professional athlete. He told OFB that being a leader sometimes means stepping out of a personal comfort zone in order to get someone  to listen. But then comes his life motto—”Never have a bad day”—and you understand what makes him stand out in a sports culture of NFL lockouts and hour-long sporting events dedicated to one player’s decision to change teams.

Ward told OFB he’s excited about the makeup of his new team and says it will be fun to watch guys like Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin as teammates.  And the Capitals fanbase has already made an impression on him from his time in an opposing team’s jersey. Ward described the Capitals’  fan support as unbelievable, gave a verbal stick tap to the sea of red jerseys , and talked about how he could see the passion among Capitals faithful.

He may need that fan support for the Capitals’ first opponent of the preseason – ironically his old team, the Nashville Predators.

“It’ll definitely be a weird one, for sure,” Ward said of facing his former team, where he spent three of his four NHL seasons thus far. “Nashville’s what I knew.”

He said, however, he’s definitely excited about being a part of D.C. He’s had to do most of the initial area exploring sans teammates’ support, however, since he hasn’t really talked much yet since the trade to most of the current Capitals and his playing career hasn’t crossed paths previously with many on the roster, either.

As for the franchise itself, Ward does remember some old time Caps hockey—including the marathon game back with Washington goalie Bob Mason in net. In his own playing career, Ward said he enjoys the playoff atmosphere, where games are tighter and fans are rowdier, and recalled every aspiring NHL player’s dream as a kid of scoring the big goal in a big game. His numbers showcase that, too. In 12 playoff games last year, Ward racked up 13 points. In his six-game debut NHL playoff series the year before, he scored 4 points.

Ward says he’s ready to help Washington out; he was struck by the character it took for the Capitals to climb from the 8-game losing slump showcased in HBO’s 24/7 in December back into a winning mode, one that eventually saw the team finish with the 1^st seed in the Eastern Conference.

And he enjoys the pressure of being a shut-down forward in the league, should Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau choose to use him as such.

“I just like the pressure of being out there every day against the top line,” Ward said.

But, as a guy who’s strong enough to make every day a good one, he’s ready to do whatever it takes to help the Caps win.

My wife takes a simple yet elegant approach: root for whoever’s losing at that exact moment. Stay with that team while they’re losing or tied… then switch to the other team if the lead changes. The Underdog Special, basically. Effective, if a bit murky before the game’s first goal.

But I can’t watch this series that way; it feels like I should be following one of two schools of thought:

School 1: If the team that just beat your team does really well—maybe even wins the Cup—it’s a little less embarrassing to lose to a team that’s obviously on a roll.

School 2: No rooting for divisional rivals, especially not those who just beat your team.

So what are your thoughts on the matter?

For the Capitals, keeping the team loose seems a job by committee, if you ask the guys. There’s no shortage of names when asked for locker room characters: Jason Chimera, Matt Bradley, and Matt Hendricks, showing once again just how crucial non top-line guys can be off the ice.

It seems to be less what they do, and more the things they say, that earns them the title – “Some of them, it’s just stuff that comes out of their mouths,” teammate John Erskine explained.

Matt Hendricks, for example, will go around the room before a game and say something to each player.

Hendricks says, however, he wasn’t the funny guy growing up – in fact, it was another part of his development as an NHL player. Caps fans know from watching HBO’s 24/7 that Hendricks had to broaden his skill set to include fighting in order to keep a roster spot in the NHL. But Hendricks also developed the equally crucial talent of making guys laugh.

“I think it developed in my pro career, just as a niche thing – [trying] to find my niche in this league,” he said. “I used to be always serious all the time, but that’s hard on you.”

So who keeps Hendricks laughing? Standing in the locker room, answering which Capital has the best sense of humor that the media doesn’t know about, he gives an answer that certainly surprises me.

“Boyd Gordon,” Hendricks says almost immediately. “Best sense of humor ever. Dry, extremely dry.”

A Caps employee standing nearby has already started laughing, presumably – though unconfirmed— at Hendricks’ answer or my gullibility (I took Hendricks’ answer initially with all the gravitas of Victoria Beckham going wardrobe shopping), so Hendricks helped me out by explaining a bit further, enough so that I could tell it was a genuine answer.

“Most guys wouldn’t think that, but if you got him alone for a little bit, and you could understand him – which not many people do – it’s dynamite. I get a kick out of him every day,” Hendricks said of the fourth-liner, who is certainly, around the media, professional in his answers but relatively quiet. “It took me a little while to get to know him… I get a big kick out of him.”

The easiest argument for Holtby’s demotion is the team has two goalies it needs to get ready for the postseason. That said, however, who says Holtby couldn’t be the guy to play in the postseason? As it stands now, Holtby has looked like the best goalie in the organization, and, on top of that, he has the numbers to back it up. Perhaps the most overlooked and best part about his performance this year is he has gotten better in almost every single start.

Think for a minute: we saw the best of Michal Neuvirth at the beginning of the season when he was thrust into the starting role with almost no warning. Since then, he hasn’t looked the same and has not posted those same numbers. Meanwhile, Semyon Varlamov had his solid stretch around the Winter Classic when he looked like the impenetrable wall we saw in the playoffs just a few years ago. Other than those games, though, Varly hasn’t stayed on the ice and his team has a big question mark hovering over their goalie stability now. Holtby, on the other hand, has come up and posted solid outings every time he has been called upon, sometimes with very little warning that he will be starting. With the exception of a few stinkers, Holtby has been dominate in the crease and has not had an extended period of time where he hasn’t been good. I don’t think we can honestly say we have seen the very best Braden Holtby yet.

Obviously Holtby hasn’t had the luxury to prove himself in a long-term stint, but he still has looked healthy and ready to start at the drop of a pin, which is more than you can say for Varly. The young Russian looked like the guy for the next decade just a few years ago and now he looks like he might not be on the team next year — all of this because of his injuries, which are coincidentally the biggest reason the Caps need to keep Holtby in Washington.

Neuvy is a fine number one, and, in my opinion, the guy who needs to start in just a few weeks. But what if he gets hurt, doesn’t look the same or falls ill? Then the team has to turn to Varly who hasn’t been able to stay healthy all season. And what if he aggravates his groin? Personally, Varly looks like a liability at this point. Is he really ready to play if needed when the Caps can’t even play him back-to-back games against Ottawa and Montreal? This team should be in tuneup time and not still finding out what they have on their roster.

Washington knows more than anyone that a hot goalie can steal a series and a bad one can cost a city a promising playoff run. Obviously we cannot predict the future, but once the first round rolls around would you be more comfortable with Holtby and Neuvy, two young and healthy guys ready to start at any moments notice, or Varly and Neuvy, two young guys one of whom has been on and off the injured reserve for the last two seasons? I think it is a clear answer.

Some may think I am being unfair to Varly, which I may be, but when it comes to the playoffs, the absolute best needs to be on the team because this same team will most likely not play together again. While some in the organization don’t believe it is “Stanley Cup or Bust,” the truth is they are. Sure, they may not bust many players if they lose early, but some may choose not to return to Washington and retire, like Arnott, some guys may move on, like Schultz, and others just might not make it back to the team.

Truth is, every team is “Stanley Cup or Bust” or they wouldn’t be playing. As a result, the front office has to give this team the best possible goalie tandem to win with. Varly may have been the guy in the past, but from what we have seen this year, it is hard not see the past fading away and see the future of Braden Holtby shining through — a future that should start now.

The 2011 Capitals Convention presented by GEICO will take place on Saturday, September 24, 2011 at the Walter E Washington Convention Center. Tickets will go on sale to the public beginning Tuesday, March 29 at 10 a.m. on WashingtonCaps.com.

Season ticket holders can begin purchasing tickets on Monday, March 28 at 10 a.m by clicking here. This link will not work until the tickets go on sale.

Need to whet your appetite, or find out more about it? Here are a few posts from previous conventions to give you a flavor of the event.

Alex:

Andrew, thinking back to last year’s playoff nosedive I can’t help but wonder why President’s Trophy winners are so unlucky come the postseason. Only seven Prez winners since 1986 have drank from the Cup in June. Oh, and Washington is not the only team to falter early as regular season champs. Detroit did it five years ago against 2006 Stanley Cup finalist Edmonton (and the former is a perennial Cup contender). I wonder if a fantastic two-way team like Vancouver will misstep considering their similar level of playoff experience as the Caps. Does a healthy Vancouver make it all the way, or even past the second round? I am getting ahead of myself here, but do this year’s Caps have a chance in a possible Cup Final with the British Columbians?

Andrew:

To me, the President’s Trophy is a meaningless trophy that no other sports offers. You don’t see teams getting trophies for winning the NFL or MLB regular season. In fact, I don’t really know anyone who can name NFL or MLB regular season champions.

The main reason ‘teams that win the President’s Trophy are so susceptible to early postseason exits is because winning the trophy takes a lot out of a team. Constantly fighting for that top spot doesn’t allow a team to rest their players or even look ahead to the postseason, they are so focused on now. You mention the Red Wings as a team that failed to win it all after capturing the elusive trophy, but I think they are actually one of the few exceptions. No, it is not because I am from Detroit, but it is because they are the last team to win the regular season and the post season.

In regards to this years chances for a Caps – Nucks final, anything can happen, but I would vote against it. Vancouver has problems in net during the postseason and with injuries. Luongo has never been stellar in the post season, though he’s certainly one of the best in the league. I think Vancouver is a team to watch out for, but could be a victim in the early rounds.

Washington has a unique problem as well: they are still young and they need to make a decision in net. Regardless of whether it is Varly, Neuvy or Holtby in net, they need to get prepared. Goalies need to play more than a handful of games in a row to get ready for the grueling postseason. Also, many former players say the team needs to “grow up” and that it has been a problem for them for a while. If they can’t figure out how to focus, or someone like Arnott can’t tell them how to, I expect an early exit. Which, despite what Mr. Leonsis says, it is 100% Stanley Cup or bust this year.

Alex:

I think someone put something in your coffee if you think the Canucks are going to tumble early, especially to a Nashville, Anaheim or Dallas. Calgary is the only team I see even taking them to seven games in the first round. That said, the Capitals are on Philly’s heals for top spot in the East and would potentially have home ice advantage in the first three playoff rounds. That hasn’t helped them in the past and neither will looking at the lower seeds in the East. All of them boast Vezina-worthy or -winning goalies. That scares me, considering Ovechkin called out Jaroslav Halak on his trembling hand last spring and from that point on it was lights out Montreal.

Right now Washington is lined up to face the Rangers in a 2009 first round rematch; taking into account the two blowouts (and three out of four wins) they authored on the good guys, it’s not going to get any easier to beat them come April. My personal preference would be to take the inconsistent Carolina or under-performing Buffalo, but I suspect that won’t happen.

Andrew:

I mean we say that every year about the first place team in the league don’t we? Said that about the Caps last year, the Sharks the year before, the Wings in 2006 the list goes on and on. I think the other thing that comes with the President’s Trophy is the lack of adversity. It is always the catch phrase of the post season, “over coming adversity,” but it is so true. It is hard to learn how to win after you lose, and not just lose, but being punched in the mouth. A tough season of a combination of losses and wins, allows a team to learn that they can never let up no matter how many games they are up in a series.

When you talk about seedings, I am just fine with a two seed, heck I am just fine with a four. Let’s remember the year Pittsburgh won, they were not a top seed in the playoffs. A top seed comes with added pressure and expectations. I don’t know about you, but I am pretty sure those are two things the Caps don’t need this post season.

A lower seed would also mean the Caps have a better shot at missing the two team’s that scare me the most this postseason and that is the Sabers and Rangers. In the playoffs, a goalie can steal a series. Let’s remember J.S. Giguire a few years back, or even Halak last year, who stole just about three series. In fact, I may be more scared of Buffalo than New York. I have said that to several people and they ask why and I just respond with, “Did you miss the Olympics?” Ryan Miller is a beast and Buffalo got bit by a lot of guys not playing well at the same time. If they get it together, watch out because they could very well make a run.

Personally, I want the Penguins or Montreal or even the Flyers. I do not want anything to do with goalies that could get hot. The Caps seem to make a habit of making goalies look really good in important games.

[That is all for this edition. Whether you agree or disagree with our opinions, feel free to add your own below and continue the discussion.]