Typically I’m a passive observer of the Western conference’s opening round matchups. For one thing, the Caps typically exhaust my energy with their springtime high drama in Eastern time zone starts, leaving me with little in the tank to follow West Coast affairs. But this Hawks-’Nucks series has me seriously sucked in. I may Red Bull it around 9:30 tonight.

The central storyline for me in this series extends far beyond this year’s President’s Trophy winner potentially out-gagging last year’s. With apologies in advance, you’ll recall that last year’s Capitals became the first ever no. 1 seed to lose an opening round series after securing a 3-1 lead in games. This year, the Canucks are trying to one-up the Caps in postseason infamy.

Selfishly, we ought to welcome it.

The Hawks of course are the reigning Cup champions, but young general manager Stan Bowman looked anything but Scotty-like as he jettisoned key support components from his Cup-winning club last summer, in dire acts of cap compliance. They limped into the Western conference’s eighth seed this spring. There was no swagger whatsoever to their Cup defense. The Canucks came to Washington back on January 14 and were never seriously challenged by the in-transition Caps in a 4-2 game. I watched that game from on high in Verizon Center with my new media colleagues and joined them in unanimous assessment: Washington wanted no part of this Canucks club this season. And so I picked the Canucks to sweep the Hawks in round one this month, and a week ago that forecast looked like something I should have taken to Vegas.

But then Dave Bolland returned to Chicago’s lineup for game 4, and this series hasn’t been the same since:

• The Hawks are hitting

• The Sedins are shrinking

• The uber goalie is gagging

• Alain Vigneault looks like he’d rather be coaching hockey in the Middle East. If he loses tonight, he might be.

Now here’s where the fun really starts with this series for me. The Hawks of course have bested Vancouver in each of the previous two springs. Prior to this spring, the matchups came in the Western conference’s second round. This year of course it’s no.1 vs. no. 8. There’s clearly a referendum on the Vancouver organization with this third straight postseason matchup with the Hawks, with President’s Cup pedigree (or is it curse?) engulfing the Whale. There’s a real feud forging that always happens with the NHL postseason whenever two organizations are frequently pitted against one another — and especially when it’s lopsided in outcome and the expectations for the vanquished are annually significant.

Remind you of any other postseason rivalry of the past?

Should Chicago pull off the unimaginable tonight — win a fourth straight over the West’s no. 1 seed, with a watered down lineup relative to what they triumphed with last spring — wouldn’t we in Washington have, at long last, a new template for postseason fanbase terror, a new benchmark for perpetual postseason underachievement? Wouldn’t we have a new poster child for playoff choking? Losing a bunch of 2-0 and 3-1 series leads against you know who is intergenerationally wretched to be sure, but the Caps never gagged on a 3-0 burst of series opening dominance. And like the Caps, the Canucks have never won a Cup (although they did force a game 7 against the Rags in ’94).

Should they prevail tonight, wouldn’t the Hawks be the Pittsburgh postseason party-pooper to the Whale as Washington? (And shouldn’t it mean the demise of Mr. Bettman’s trophy?) And wouldn’t Vancouver, unlike Washington in all of our Pittsburgh-perpetrated agongy of the past, burn down late tonight if that happened? I don’t know if Vancouver even has a CFL team, but if they do, they surely don’t care about them with a scintilla of the passion they do for the Whale.

Yesterday I surveyed 20 members of the hockey media here from print, broadcast, and new, and I could find only six who picked the Whale to win tonight (I was one of them). I found that astounding. The Hawks will have had to win four straight games against a 117-pt. club — all of them elimination games! Vigneault, the mastermind behind the Canucks’ remarkable goaltender drama, was already ghost-white at the conclusion of game 6 Sunday; what might his complexion be tonight if the clock winds down and Chicago has done in his squad again?

Must-see TV . . . even for the middle-aged and morning-ed gym weary.

I will have to keep pried open my eyelids with toothpicks tonight to take it all in. Should Chicago pull off one of the all-time great NHL postseason comebacks — and I think get us in D.C. a bit off the hook in the process — we’ll have reality TV that’s really real: a heavy Canadian reckoning in hockey in spring.

Postscript: Today’s National Post weighs in on the plight of the Canucks. A loss tonight would represent “the worst collapse in team sports history, or thereabouts,” claims columnist Bruce Arthur.

Alex:

Andrew, thinking back to last year’s playoff nosedive I can’t help but wonder why President’s Trophy winners are so unlucky come the postseason. Only seven Prez winners since 1986 have drank from the Cup in June. Oh, and Washington is not the only team to falter early as regular season champs. Detroit did it five years ago against 2006 Stanley Cup finalist Edmonton (and the former is a perennial Cup contender). I wonder if a fantastic two-way team like Vancouver will misstep considering their similar level of playoff experience as the Caps. Does a healthy Vancouver make it all the way, or even past the second round? I am getting ahead of myself here, but do this year’s Caps have a chance in a possible Cup Final with the British Columbians?

Andrew:

To me, the President’s Trophy is a meaningless trophy that no other sports offers. You don’t see teams getting trophies for winning the NFL or MLB regular season. In fact, I don’t really know anyone who can name NFL or MLB regular season champions.

The main reason ‘teams that win the President’s Trophy are so susceptible to early postseason exits is because winning the trophy takes a lot out of a team. Constantly fighting for that top spot doesn’t allow a team to rest their players or even look ahead to the postseason, they are so focused on now. You mention the Red Wings as a team that failed to win it all after capturing the elusive trophy, but I think they are actually one of the few exceptions. No, it is not because I am from Detroit, but it is because they are the last team to win the regular season and the post season.

In regards to this years chances for a Caps – Nucks final, anything can happen, but I would vote against it. Vancouver has problems in net during the postseason and with injuries. Luongo has never been stellar in the post season, though he’s certainly one of the best in the league. I think Vancouver is a team to watch out for, but could be a victim in the early rounds.

Washington has a unique problem as well: they are still young and they need to make a decision in net. Regardless of whether it is Varly, Neuvy or Holtby in net, they need to get prepared. Goalies need to play more than a handful of games in a row to get ready for the grueling postseason. Also, many former players say the team needs to “grow up” and that it has been a problem for them for a while. If they can’t figure out how to focus, or someone like Arnott can’t tell them how to, I expect an early exit. Which, despite what Mr. Leonsis says, it is 100% Stanley Cup or bust this year.

Alex:

I think someone put something in your coffee if you think the Canucks are going to tumble early, especially to a Nashville, Anaheim or Dallas. Calgary is the only team I see even taking them to seven games in the first round. That said, the Capitals are on Philly’s heals for top spot in the East and would potentially have home ice advantage in the first three playoff rounds. That hasn’t helped them in the past and neither will looking at the lower seeds in the East. All of them boast Vezina-worthy or -winning goalies. That scares me, considering Ovechkin called out Jaroslav Halak on his trembling hand last spring and from that point on it was lights out Montreal.

Right now Washington is lined up to face the Rangers in a 2009 first round rematch; taking into account the two blowouts (and three out of four wins) they authored on the good guys, it’s not going to get any easier to beat them come April. My personal preference would be to take the inconsistent Carolina or under-performing Buffalo, but I suspect that won’t happen.

Andrew:

I mean we say that every year about the first place team in the league don’t we? Said that about the Caps last year, the Sharks the year before, the Wings in 2006 the list goes on and on. I think the other thing that comes with the President’s Trophy is the lack of adversity. It is always the catch phrase of the post season, “over coming adversity,” but it is so true. It is hard to learn how to win after you lose, and not just lose, but being punched in the mouth. A tough season of a combination of losses and wins, allows a team to learn that they can never let up no matter how many games they are up in a series.

When you talk about seedings, I am just fine with a two seed, heck I am just fine with a four. Let’s remember the year Pittsburgh won, they were not a top seed in the playoffs. A top seed comes with added pressure and expectations. I don’t know about you, but I am pretty sure those are two things the Caps don’t need this post season.

A lower seed would also mean the Caps have a better shot at missing the two team’s that scare me the most this postseason and that is the Sabers and Rangers. In the playoffs, a goalie can steal a series. Let’s remember J.S. Giguire a few years back, or even Halak last year, who stole just about three series. In fact, I may be more scared of Buffalo than New York. I have said that to several people and they ask why and I just respond with, “Did you miss the Olympics?” Ryan Miller is a beast and Buffalo got bit by a lot of guys not playing well at the same time. If they get it together, watch out because they could very well make a run.

Personally, I want the Penguins or Montreal or even the Flyers. I do not want anything to do with goalies that could get hot. The Caps seem to make a habit of making goalies look really good in important games.

[That is all for this edition. Whether you agree or disagree with our opinions, feel free to add your own below and continue the discussion.]

A month ago, the Stars were the success story of the NHL, shining brightly atop the Pacific division in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year in Dallas. They lodged themselves in first in the Pacific for a healthy chunk of fall and winter. But February has been cruel: 1-8-1, and the losses often have been of the resounding variety. This morning the Stars are on the outside looking in at postseason qualification in the West — 10th, but that’s far from daunting; the fifth-seeded Wild (70 pts.) hold just a two-pt. edge over Dallas. Teams five through 12 out West are separated by just four points. Still, with a star-starved Stars’ lineup, and with their best player presently shelved, it’s easy to imagine the early upstarts falling out of playoff contention. And it’s easy to imagine another defeat for Dallas in Motown tonight. In short, it’s easy to imagine Dallas wearing a Cinderella’s skate, and midnight beckoning.

And so a pressing question increasingly emerges: if these are the real Stars, seriously slowing down after so hard a charge out of the gate, does the GM initiate a widely expected rebuild, belatedly, this trade deadline season? Second-year general manager Joe Nieuwendyk has already re-fashioned his roster in the last week, sending winger James Neal and defenseman Matt Niskanen to Pittsburgh for Alex Goligoski. Both Stars’ players had fallen on tough times, and out of favor. Goligoski is a coveted young puck-mover. A second huge question also confronts Nieuwendyk: what to do with free-agent-to-be Brad Richards, currently out of the lineup (since February 13) with a concussion? The answer to the first question, I think, largely determines the answer to the second. Or maybe not.

Does Richards’ concussion cloud his status altogether for the Dallas GM? Maybe Richards is back in 10 days and helping the Stars qualify for the postseason with still 15 games remaining. But what if he’s out longer? And for a team — say the Capitals — keenly interested in acquiring a difference-making man in the middle: how much in picks and prospects do you potentially part with uncertain of when — if — Richards could join your lineup?

Should he choose to, Nieuwendyk would be a seller in a thickly clogged market of bidders. And he possesses perhaps the market’s biggest prize. And it happens to be precisely the sort of player this Washington Capitals’ team should covet.

Who is Brad Richards? Well, first and foremost, he’s Dallas’ best player, in the prime of his hockey career (he’ll be 31 in May), and a former Conn Smythe winner (with Tampa, in 2004). Twice he’s been a 90-plus point player, and he’s on pace to come close to that again this season. His present injury notwithstanding, he’s been remarkably durable: five times in his NHL career he’s played all 82 regular season games. He possesses a fantastically accurate shot and a quick release; while not especially big he’s strong on his skates; he’d be an ideal jolt of offense to an offense-starved Capitals’ power play. Were he acquired by George McPhee in these final days of player movement he would turn a season-long question mark for the Capitals’ second line into a unit of strength. He makes $7.8 million in this final year of his contract, but at this point in the season most of that is already paid out.

As a pending free agent, of course, he’s a rental. Meaning: his price point in a trade is rather hard to forecast. And his injury makes it more so. Dallas, you wouldn’t think, would have much leverage in keeping him beyond Monday’s 3:00 trade deadline. With or without Richards they aren’t going to win a Cup this spring, and somebody will throw mean, large coin at him come summer. And if you haven’t noticed, the Stars aren’t filling seats at home with Richards.

The Capitals, it is the opinion of this blogger, need to be bold with one or two roster moves before mid-afternoon of Monday next. All teams above them in the East have recently fortified already strong rosters, while the Caps have stood pat. Even a first-round matchup with a brutally beat-up Penguins’ club wouldn’t be any cakewalk. (And Sidney might well be back for it.) All season long the Capitals have approached staffing the middle of their second line with a committee of auditioning, wet-behind-the-ears prospects, without durable success. Serious Cup contenders do not enter the postseason with gaping weakness within their top six forward pairings. And this weakness bears directly on the disheartening and dreadful power play (21st in the league, at an agonizing 16.8 percent success rate).

Dallas and Washington don’t often deal. You have to go all the way back to January of 1995 to spot a trade of note between the clubs: the Caps acquired Mark Tinordi for Kevin Hatcher then. Conditions today seem ripe for an important phone call between the managers.

It has been some while since George McPhee has gone really bold at a trade deadline. It has also been some while since his roster needed notable re-engineering in February. McPhee isn’t known for going big and bold at the deadline; instead, he prefers to tinker around his roster’s edges.

The Capitals need to rent Brad Richards this spring, and in doing so make a serious statement in an Eastern Conference offering little elite swagger at the top. This is a Capitals’ roster less in need of tinkering around the edges (like last year); it needs a jolt of difference-making. The Capitals desperately need help on the power play, and they desperately need help solidifying their top six, and adding a player in his prime boasting a Conn Smythe pedigree would do that and much much more.