05 September, 2008

Category Archives: Steve Eminger

Eminger Signed - by Philadelphia

Steve Eminger will be wearing black and orange next season after signing a one-year deal today.

Unless he manages to find the Flyers’ doghouse as he did in Washington, I’m betting he gets more ice time in Philly this year than he did in D.C. — UFA Jason Smith is likely departing, Mike Rathje is in questionable health, and traffic cone Derian Hatcher (how appropriate that he wears orange) is of dubious value at his age even when healthy, and with an injured knee and broken leg last season he’s slower than ever.

“I’m happy to get the deal worked out and excited about being part of the organization,” Eminger said. “I can’t wait for the start of the season to get things going.”

Here’s wishing Eminger well . . . just not when the Capitals are his opponent.

We Could Use a Few Signings, Couldn’t We?

These are salad days for salaries in the NHL. Yesterday came word that the salary cap for 2008-09 would rise to $56.7 million, with a salary floor ($40.7 million) higher than the league’s cap just back three seasons ago, in the first post-lockout regular season.  Stunning. As the salary cap is directly linked to the league’s revenues, which are directly linked to its gate receipts, it’s seems clear that a few folks other than Tiger Woods and Tony Kornheiser are interested in hockey.  

Meanwhile, there remain outstanding — unsigned — some necessarily expensive parts to 2008-09 for the Washington Capitals. The tally: Christobal Huet, Brooks Laich, Shaone Morrisonn, and Mike Green. Boyd Gordon and Eric Fehr need new deals, too, but I don’t imagine those will be that expensive. Right now both Matt Cooke and Sergei Fedorov look like salary cap casualties, luxuries likely unaffordable in ‘08. Since I last wrote about matters financial Capitals’ GM George McPhee has managed to sheer off about $2 million in payroll for next season by dealing Steve Eminger to Philadelphia and buying out Ben Clymer. (Ray Shero’s fruitless negotiations with Marian Hossa this month apparently have sheared off $7-8 million from the Penguins’ payroll for next season.)

However, it’s beginning to look like McPhee will need that $2 million to pay Mike Green just in the autumn portion of the calandar next season.

Ah yes, Mike Green. For the congenitally white-knuckled of Caps’ fans, his breakout season in 2007-08, combined with apparently every name New York Ranger leaving Broadway, portends his departure and the swift end of hockey’s renaissance in Washington. But count me among those who think it far from a certainty that Green’s gonna attract a bevy of offer sheets next Tuesday.

For one thing, as great as his game looks, Green’s had only one big-number season, and the price in first-round draft picks for signing him would be exorbitant (as many as five). Additionally, both the owner and the general manager are on record stating that the club will match whatever offer comes Green’s way. For another, offer sheets for restricted free agents (see Tomas Vanek) are in a very real sense one GM’s performing labor for a colleague. Lastly, Green, though a young and inexperienced great talent just as Dustin Penner was last summer, is a primary building block for a contending Caps’ club. Penner wasn’t last summer, nor is he today, one of the 50 best forwards in the NHL. Penner’s was a stupid contract conceived by a stupid GM. Brian Burke allowed stupidity to reign supreme for a moment, but his Ducks won’t soon be looking up at the Oil in the standings.

In Green the Caps know what they’ve got – an already impressive no. 1 rearguard whom they were awfully lucky to nab with a 29th pick in the ‘04 draft, one who has a great deal of progression and maturity ahead of him. Likely, too, Mike Green also knows what he’s got in D.C., and specifically in Bruce Boudreau’s system: the green light to pile up points for a really big deal around the time he’s in his prime. 

Mike Green will get signed alright. But it won’t come cheap. In fact, Team Green may be pointing to Alexander Semin’s 2009-10 salary ($5 million) and understandably if myopically bargaining that Green’s of greater value to the team than Semin. In an ideal world, Team Green would acknowledge the client’s youth and inexperience and appreciable development still ahead and ask to be made the team’s highest paid defenseman . . . but not like say Anaheim’s best defenseman.

Few however imagine ideal worlds with attorneys and player agents in them.  

Speaking of interesting contracts, remember that “home team discount” deal Sidney Crosby signed? It will pay him $7.5 million in 2013. The thinking here is that Sidney will be a pretty good hockey player in 2013, when he’s still not yet 30 years old. Do you know how many NHLers will be earning more than $7.5 million then? (Mike Green might well be one.) One of them will be Vinny Lecavalier, according to ESPN. Indeed, as early as 2009-10, Crosby may not even be the highest paid Penguin. The intrigue with the Penguins never ends.  

Given the number and prominence of Capitals’ restricted free agents, this wasn’t supposed to be an easy summer of negotiating for GMGM. It was made tougher by the breakout seasons by Laich and Green, as well as Morrisonn’s emergence as a top-pairing performer. And while last weekend was filled with the promise of securing hockey’s future, this one is about placating the present. It’s messy but necessary business.

It’s a time to be anxious but not a time to be pessimistic. 

Morning After Draft Reflections

In a draft heavy on talented rearguards, four of the first five selections were on the blueline, and 12 went among the top 30 overall. I’m at pains to identify a real reach anywhere in round one. Certainly there were no Blake Wheeler brain-dead picks. A lot of teams helped their systems last night.

Although . . . not so much in Pittsburgh.

There were more than a dozen trades during round one last night, which added serious spice to the evening drama. Olli Jokinen moved out of the Southeast (for a song). The Flames moved Alex Tanguay and his 18 goals and $5 million contract to Montreal for the Habs’ first rounder. The Kings shipped Mike Cammallerie to Calgary for a first. And of course the Caps parted ways with Steve Eminger.   

It’s a metaphysical certitude that a fair and sober and accurate evaluation of any draft requires 3-5 years’ time as picks mature from teenage prospects into young men mentored by NHL organizations, and so necessarily it’s important to weigh in — with vigorous and unyielding certainty – on who won and who lost last night, less than 12 hours after the 30th pick was made.

My winners: Chicago, Phoenix (highway robbery of Florida), Nashville, the Rangers, LA, Tampa, and the Caps.

Losers: the New York Islanders (there’s a stunner).

The Isles’ behavior last night can only be described as bizarre. They have a roster craving impact players, and perched at no. 5, they were poised to land one. Filatov, for instance, was on the board. So was Schenn. So what does the Snow-Wang braintrust do? They trade down. Not once, but twice! Where at no. 9 they land non-impact prospect Josh Bailey.

“The consensus is that [Bailey] won’t be a big offensive producer in the NHL,” THN wrote in its Entry Draft preview issue. Just what the Isles needed. I think the Blue Jackets stunned Snow with their selection of Filatov at no. 6, meaning, necessarily, that the Isles weren’t well prepared for the moment. There’s something new.       

Keep an eye on Nashville’s selection at 18, goaltender Chet Pickard. Mike Vogel chatted up a scouting source in Ottawa who suggested that Pickard is more impressive now than was Carey Price in his draft year. Wow.

Consensus seems to be that the Rangers got great value in selecting Michael Del Zotto at 20.

If there was one moderate reach in round one it might have been the Bs choosing Joe Colborne at no. 16. Colborne played Jr. A the past two seasons. He’s a tantalizing package of a big frame, strong skating, and soft hands, but NHL scouts commonly show restraint with prospects who aren’t competing at the highest level among their peers. Colborne will skate next season with Denver of the WCHA, so he’ll get as good a test of his abilities there as he could anywhere.

Earlier this week, via the CapsReport, I put to draft guru Kyle Woodlief a question about an American prospect surge late this spring, noting that whereas throughout much of the hockey season most scouting services had just two or three Americans going in round one, finals lists commonly had 4-6 Yanks there. He poo-poo-ed the notion, suggesting that about three Americans remained likelys for the first. Well, six Americans went among the first 30 players drafted, further bolstering the claims of a renaissance in U.S. hockey development.

I just have this hunch that Hawks’ fans will come to love Dale Tallon’s pick of Kyle Beach at no. 11. He’s a big-bodied, piss-n-vinegar prospect.

For Caps’ fans, leaving a strong draft with two first-round picks has to be considered both a pleasant surprise and a real boon to an already strong stable of youth. If I’m a hockey fan in Hershey this morning I’m calling the ticket office and inquiring about season tickets for the next couple of seasons. In the Washington hockey bloggers’ real-time chat I joined last night I observed to the room how cool it will be to see the name Gustafsson on the back of red, white, and blue Caps’ sweaters, and not out of nostalgia.   

I want to commend the Friday night puck party sensibilities of the well over 500 puckheads who joined JP, Eric, Peerless, and OFB in our consolidated live blog forum for more than four hours last night. Apparently, in late June, Washington isn’t much of a hockey town.

It was, from my vantage, everything that new media can offer as a rewarding experience in being connected with like-minded lovers of hockey on a big night. It didn’t hurt that we were gathered on a Friday night. Kudos to JP for bringing forward the idea late in the day yesterday, and to Eric for carrying off the last-minute technology so smoothly. By evening’s end a whole lot of us were united in the belief that we have to do it again. We were also united in the belief that JP needs help with his refrigerator’s selection of puck sodas.   

A Hockey Team Looking Orphaned from Postseason Prosperity — As It Should

Near 10:00 last night I had a singing Little Orphan Annie stuck in my head:

The sun will come out, tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow, there’ll be sun
Jus’ thinkin’ about, tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs and the sorrow
‘Til there’s none

Annie, though generally not commonly channeled for her thoughts on the Stanley Cup playoffs, was a red-head. And Cristobal Huet wishes it were merely cobwebs in his goal crease as opposed to a swarm of Philadelphia Flyers. Instead, there’s plenty of sorrow there.

Were Annie following this playoff series “tomorrow” for her wouldn’t refer to Thursday’s game 4 but rather next year, for the Caps. The Caps this April have some not-so-ready-for-prime-time players on their roster — including the planet’s greatest hockey player and most particularly his center. I also thought this last night: didn’t Sidney Crosby’s young (sorta) Penguins manage to win just one playoff game last spring against Cup-finalist Ottawa in their maiden postseason appearance as a rebuilt club? 

Lest you think this is merely a 2-1 deficit for the Caps to climb out of, know this: of the series’ nine periods played the Flyers have been in thorough control for eight of them. They take penalties but pay no price for taking them, as their penalty killing acumen is elite. They are following their coach’s strategems perfectly. They are in synch. And they are in complete control of this series largely because they have experience in this mission. 

Miracles can happen, and larger deficits in playoff series of course have been overcome (don’t we in D.C. know about that), but generally youth doesn’t serve them. You can just tell that Scott Hartnell’s been through this before. Ditto for Daniella Briere. And while Derian Hatcher is largely a pylon at this stage in his career, he’s a very springtime-tested one. Youth is being served in orange and black in the form of Mike Richards. What a stud.

In the interest of making it as tough as possible for the Flyers to prevail I would like to see Gabby tinker a bit more with his lineup. It was right to remove the overmatched Tomas Fleischmann and re-insert Eric Fehr. And I’m with JP: I’ve seen enough of John Erskine, and I want to see a heck of a lot more of Steve Eminger.  

There is some good news for Caps’ fans this week: Alexander Semin, whom most in hockey thought would be brutalized by the Flyers’ aggression tactics in this series, is the Capitals’ best forward, and likely only to get better. Do you know how many hockey players there are on planet Earth who can stand on one leg and basically decapitate a well armored netminder?

This would be a more interesting series were warrior Chris Clark a part of it, but that’s spilled milk. No matter how healthy the Caps roster this spring, some brutally tough postseason lessons would have to be learned by the dozen in Caps’ sweaters who’d never participated in them. However aberrational 6-14-1 was last fall, it just isn’t the calendar season stuff of Lord Stanley. I suspect most Caps’ fans recognized this even in the delirium of last Friday night. ‘85 Villanova types generally don’t get their names etched on the Big Silver: that trophy requires eight weeks of excellence, not 40 minutes. And its winners overwhelmingly are comprised of players who’ve slogged through seasons’ worth of hockey’s springtime marathon — one that bears little resemblance to its regular season.  

For Game 4 tomorrow I’m attending a late-afternoon Capitol Hill game-watch barbeque with a Sea of Red set under a forecast of springtime perfect skies. For a few minutes late last night I thought about a somberness settling in over our planned picnic, but my friends will read this and I trust be persuaded that tomorrow’s game, and however many more follow before we pack it in this hockey season, is an occasion to celebrate. We in hockeyWashington were orphans from postseason dreams present and future just last fall; now we’re mezzanine ticket holders headed toward orchestra seats.     

Washington Capitals Vocabulary Lessons

Mike Vogel asks Capitals players about their favorite hockey terms, including gems like Grocery Stick, Gitch, and Schmelt. Get a few chuckles and learn some new words while you’re at it.

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Courage Caps

Courage CapAt a news conference yesterday, Washington Capitals chairman and majority owner Ted Leonsis spoke of how professional athletes are often lauded for their courage. He noted that courage can take many forms, from the heroism of our military and first responders to our children battling disease. To find a way that their whole organization and fans could show their support, they created Courage Caps.

The Courage Caps are team-issued and branded hats which will be sold, starting October 26th, for $20 at the community relations table at Capitals home games and online at WashingtonCaps.com and NHL.com. “When our fans wear these hats”, Leonsis continued, “they show their support for the courageous people throughout our community.”

Whereas, the wearing of the Courage Caps hats shows support, the sale provides financial support. 100% of the sale price will go benefit the CureSearch National Childhood Caner Foundation. CureSearch is a Bethesda-based nonprofit “and an NHL charitable partner that focuses on raising funds for the Children’s Oncology Group, the world’s largest cooperative cancer research organization that treats 90% of children with cancer.”Caps Care / Children's National Medial Center

The team chose an old friend to help debut this new program, for the press conference took place during the team’s annual visit to the Children’s National Medical Center. The entire team, Leonsis and partner Raul Fernandez were at the hospital for the press conference.

For years I have heard of the team’s visit to Children’s National Medical Center, but this was the first time that I was on hand to watch the players and the children interact. As a father of a four-year-old with a second on the way, the visit was heartwarming and tear-jerking. The players — all of them — sat down at tables and colored with the children that were well enough to leave their beds and be exposed to unmasked visitors and untold germs. It broke my heart to see these children, some in wheelchairs, others with numerous IV tubes and bandages, and wonder what sort of hell they and their parents are living. But then you see the smiles on their faces when Chris Clark autographs a hat for them, or Brent Johnson asks what color he should color the hockey player’s helmet, or when a little girl runs over to Olie Kolzig as he says “Hi there pigtails, how are you?” There is also a simple joy of seeing these larger-than-life hockey players sitting down with their favorite Crayola hue and trying to stay in the lines.

Ovechkin and Semin color with the kids

I was speaking with the hospital’s manager of public relations, Emily Dammeyer, who told me that this is the hospital’s favorite event of the year. “They really spend time with the children, not just make an appearance, especially upstairs where the cameras are off.”Kolzig signs a Courage Cap

Which made me think of Olie, who not only has been coming to Children’s National Medical Center more than anyone else in the organization, but is also a father. I asked him how this experience has changed from before he was a dad to after.

“I’ve always had a fondness for kids, and been a big believer that being a kid and being sick shouldn’t go hand in hand … then you become a father and then you realize how vital it is to have a facility like this.”

The only thing missing from yesterday’s event was the media. Press releases announcing the event and photo op were sent out by the Capitals and the Children’s National Medical Center. Perhaps I missed some faces and names, but I believe only I, a Comcast SportsNet TV Cameraman, and two photographers attended. How such tremendous works by an organization and its players can go unnoticed or with little interest is repugnant.

My thanks go out to the Capitals and everyone at Children’s National Medical Center, especially Emily Dammeyer and Mark Miller, for affording me the privilege to witness this annual event of kindness and caring.

A few more pictures of the event can be seen after the break.

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Trevor, the Morbidly Obese Goalie

From time to time, we get emails from our readers informing us of hockey tidbits or other happenings that we might otherwise miss. Some are blog worthy, some are not. Our most recent email comes on the heals of OFB’s first book report. Mr. Leonsis assigned us our next book by sending us a link to a book expert in the Wall Street Journal.

In his latest book, Andy Roddick Beat Me with a Frying Pan: Taking the Field with Pro Athletes and Olympic Legends to Answer Sports Fans’ Burning Questions, author Todd Gallagher tackles some of sports more thought provoking questions. One such question is why an NHL team has not dressed an obese goalie to completely fill the net so the opposition couldn’t possibly score?

Gallagher investigates the legal, medial, physical and practical issues the question raises. Finding a morbidly obese goalie is a challenge, so he has a special-effects guru construct a fat suit to replicate such an “athlete”.Andy Roddick Beat Me With A Frying Pan - by Todd Gallagher

The only way to fully test this theory was to get an NHL team to shoot against the faux fatso. My esteemed editor, Jed Donahue, got in touch with a fellow Georgetown graduate who was doing nearly as well as he is: Ted Leonsis, billionaire owner of the Washington Capitals, whom the Sporting News once called one of the twenty most powerful people in sports. Leonsis, who made his fortune in the world of telecommunications and technology, is a bit of a visionary. And while his vision may not have originally included allowing the professional hockey team he owns to take slapshots at a guy in a fat suit, he saw the potential and gave the stunt the green light.

With a team of highly skilled shooters in place, we needed someone to get in the suit. I certainly wasn’t going to do it (insert fake injury/ailment/note from my mom here), so I enlisted George Mason University goalie Trevor Butler.

The experiment was obviously conducted before the end of last season, but the reactions are no less funny.

Their reactions were even less encouraging than Johanna’s icy responses were. Most players wanted nothing to do with an elephantine goalie. Defenseman Ben Clymer was so ashamed of being associated with the tub that he tried to identify himself with a fake name (he used center Kris Beech’s). Winger Dainius Zubrus put it bluntly: “It would be embarrassing if there was a goalie that big.” Defenseman Steve Eminger confirmed my worst fears about how our big man would be received when he said opposing teams would simply try to run him over in the net. The Real Kris Beech had an even more depressing comment for our new star: “You might spear him and see if chocolate came out.”

The excerpt is a great read, and while this may be the only hockey reference in the book, it is one I look forward to reading.

Our thanks go out to Ted for the heads up.

Reflections on Training Camp’s Opening Week

Capitals Training Camp 2007It’s a day of rest not only for Washington Capitals’ players and coaches — well, the players at least — but for the team’s frenzied communications staff as well. Being out at Kettler as much as I have been the past 10 days, I gained a deep appreciation for the commitment of Nate Ewell, Julie Petri, Paul Rovnak, and Mike Vogel, among others. Their days during camp begin early and end late, and at this time of year they’re not only facilitating one of the heavier media flows following camp in years but also putting together the in-season communications products, such as the Media Guide. It’s forecast to be a stunning late September Sunday today, and I hope they’re all out having fun in the fun and recharging their batteries.

The pause in on-ice action is a good time to take stock of what the Caps have achieved thus far in what I believe is the most important training camp in the organization’s history. I made a point during my visits to survey the hockey-savvy heads also taking in the daily doings at Kettler, from print and broadcast reporters to fellow bloggers to fans in the stands, and herewith I’m blending their leading storylines of camp to date with my own.

  • Proud Papa. I’ve regularly seen Owner Leonsis as training camp spectator during the past 10 days, and while it’s true he’s no longer involved with the day-to-day operations of AOL, he remains a busy communications man. I think what’s happened with his training camp interest level mirrors that of the rest of us: the quality and depth of the organization on display is so impressive you are fairly compelled to make the trip out there and simply revel in the turned corner of the team’s competitiveness.
  • Nylander to line 2. Two years ago Michael Nylander left Washington as a very good hockey player. This fall he’s returned but done so appearing to be more a star. He’s a dynamic playmaker, in supreme condition. And while almost everyone in hockey this summer forecasted an Ovechkin-Nylander top-line pairing, way back in July Head Coach Glen Hanlon very publicly stated his intention of experimenting with top-6 forward combinations, and thus far in camp, the conspicuous chemistry appears to have melded among Alexander Semin, Michael Nylander, and Nicklas Backstrom as Hanlon’s second unit.
  • Slick Swede Part II. Speaking of Backstrom, he is irrefutably gaining comfort on the North American-sized sheet of ice — making progress “on a daily basis,” to quote my friend Mike Vogel. At the World Championships in Moscow in May, former Cap and Swedish National Team Head Coach Bengt Gustafsson told us that Backstrom would make that transition successfully and reasonably swiftly, and he was right. Tim Leone up in Hershey thinks it in Backstrom’s, and the Caps’, best interest for him to have a cup of coffee with the Bears this season. Ain’t happening.
  • It’s my puck, and I’m keeping it. The Caps don’t (yet) have a dominant shut-down defenseman, so Glen Hanlon’s strategy for improved defensive play this season rests with his club maintaining possession of the puck more often than in the past two seasons, when often they chased it around the rink in futile fashion. If you have the puck more often than your opposition, your goalie isn’t get apt to face 40 or 50 shots each night, and surrender five or six goals most nights. So far, this strategy appears to be taking hold. In training camp’s scrimmages and through the Caps’ first three preseason games, you can see more puck possession and fewer netminders collapsing from fatigue.
  • Captain, My Captain/Son of Kono-Dahlen-Halpern. I’ve changed my views on cloning, because of Chris Clark. Meaning no disrespect to Dale and his retired sweater, but should Clark captain the Caps to a Stanley Cup title in one of the next three seasons, he will have to be regarded as the best and most important captain in team history, having guided the team from the barrens of an unprecedented bottoming out to the promised land. And sitting here in September 2007, I wouldn’t stand in line to wager against it. (See Carolina ‘05-06, Tampa ‘03-04.)

It is Chris Clark’s team-first, two-way versatility that has Glen Hanlon fantasizing about a two-way, impact third line along the lines of the great Steve Konowalchuk, Jeff Halpern, Ulf Dahlen trio of a few years ago. That line, you’ll recall, was so dominant that Ron Wilson opened just about every game with it. It was also one that was a lynchpin to the Caps’ postseason participation. The coach has told the media that he’s looking for 60 goals from his third line this season, and given the defensive acumen of Clark and Boyd Gordon, and Matt Pettinger’s offensive pop, it’s natural to invoke the KDH comparison.

I’m also not wagering on Clark’s offensive production diminishing, dramatically, by virtue of his dropping down to line 3. As he noted himself on Media Day, he’s spent the past two seasons taking shifts against the likes of Zdeno Chara and top defensive pairings. Less so, it would appear, beginning this season.

  • Deep Depth. The Caps this weekend have 35 players battling for spots on the opening night roster. It’s reasonably easy to forecast another five cuts, but the leap from about 30 to 23 is another matter. To put it charitably, the Caps’ are in uncharted territory, post-lockout, in terms of the skater quality they’ll be showcasing out at Kettler in week two of camp. This is the most basic and encouraging sign of the overall success of the rebuild.
  • Three games, three leads. Through three exhibition games, the Caps have only once fielded a fairly veteran lineup — last Thursday night in Ottawa. They opened in Carolina, against a comparatively veteran Hurricanes’ lineup, dressing only John Erskine and Mike Green on the blueline as guys with significant NHL experience from last season (and with BJ in net). In all three games the Caps have played significant stretches with a lead (twice with two-goal leads). There remain mistakes (penalties) and concerns (penalties) aplenty, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that Coach Hanlon’s strategy of playing a more puck possession game is abundantly evident. In order to win more often, a team must first establish competitiveness, then achieve leads in games. The Caps have accomplished both early in this preseason.

The next step is to close the deal once you have the lead.

  • When did Toronto’s print media come to work in Washington? For the first time in my hockey life, I wake each day knowing that with my morning coffee I need to visit the web sites for both of Washington’s big newspapers in order to follow coverage there of Caps’ training camp. There are files there basically every day. And good ones. Additionally, blog files there. This is as it should be, but to our print guys — and most especially the Times’ Corey Masisak, who’s only taking on the beat of a departed legend — good on you.
  • Sharp-dressed men. It’s not anywhere near as important as the talent upgrade, but in this the autumn of uniform mischief, the Caps have showcased the best-looking new threads in the entire league. And it’s not even close. I’ll be particularly grateful when those snazzy white uniform system tops are rightfully returned to wearing on home ice.

The Shooting in the Dark Industry

Cup'pa JoeI greatly appreciate my bloggermate Orderedchaos’ initial survey of preseason prediction silliness. Outside of Entertainment Tonight, there can be little in this world as vacuous and vapid as “experts” engaged in summertime “prognosticating” about the performance of sports teams.

I’m a college football enthusiast, and there are at least a half dozen published preseason magazines on newsstands this month, all offering specific rankings for all 117 D-I college football teams. Each team has 85 scholarship players, with approximately 20 graduating and 20 newly arriving each season. Many returning players markedly remake their bodies over the offseason with increasingly sophisticated and effective physique-altering training regimens. They also mature. There are, additionally, widespread personnel changes among the ranks of teams’ assistant coaches every offseason.

All of these publications have their preseason forecasts put to bed long before players report for physicals for fall camp. In short, the variables of change in college football are staggeringly enormous from season to season, and yet few of them are reflected in these “forecasts.” Still, the editors of these magazines would have you believe that from their New York offices they can accurately, magically divine the fates of nearly 10,000 football players scattered across the country, most of whom they’ve never seen play.

It is with the same skeptical, dismissive eye that we ought to weigh NHL forecasts offered up in summer. These endeavors are franchises of fraud. That Sports Illustrated could label the ‘05-’06 Carolina Hurricanes a lottery loser and then watch them go on to hoist Lord Stanley seven months later should forever preclude the magazine from forecasting again. There’s getting it wrong and then there’s blindfolded dart-throwing. In the case of the ‘05-’06 NHL season, dart throwing would have aided SI.

Now to be fair, the league had been shut down the preceding season by the lockout. But even in the instances of uninterrupted competition, across sports, these forecasts are exercises in little more than slickly marketed, superficial guesswork. And they are unified in their being reliably wrong. They exist because they exploit the sports fans’ enduring and insatiable thirst to know what will lie ahead for their heroes. And they are partly fueled by the troubling intersection of modern sports and high-stakes gambling (on- and off line). The fantastic popularity of fantasy sports participation has also mushroomed the popularity of the forecasting industry.

As mindless diversion for beach chair reading, they do no real harm. But they take on a larger-than-life credibility as their rankings and rationales are echoed about message boards and blogs and picked up and regurgitated by the electronic editions of mainstream media outlets. Hockey in particular ranks among the most difficult of sports to forecast; it is why there’s so little action on it in Vegas. How do you wager on or forecast a goalie standing on his head? On some nights, you know, Kerry Fraser doesn’t bring his best evaluative acumen to the sheet.

The Capitals, a few early prognosticators have weighed in upon, will make only modest improvement in the standings this season over the previous two. They will miss the postseason again, we are told.

Such assessments can only be premised on this variable: the team’s free agents signings were nice or decent but not on the order of rink shattering. But no one can know how Nicklas Backstrom will adjust to hockey in North America on the smaller sheet and over 80-plus games in his rookie season. The difference between his notching say 47 points versus 67 points almost certainly determines the team’s playoff viability, but who is confidently able to tell us which tally will prove true?

Who among the soothsayers knows how much if at all the team is improved in the shootout? Will Kolzig hold up and perform at an elite level for at least say 65 games? And certainly the team’s young blueline must have been judged in a development vacuum, within which none of Steve Eminger, Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn, and Mike Green could appreciably improve over a year ago . . . else, joined by the improvements up front, the team would have to seriously flirt with the postseason, if not outright qualify.

Hockey, too, has its future shrouded in a marvelous mystery of the unknown impact delivered from abroad. Raise your hand if last summer you saw 40 goals in Alexander Semin’s 2006-07 arsenal. You probably had Petr Prucha down for 30 in his rookie season on Broadway, too. It is North American media offering up these rigid preseason assessments, none with any notion of what impact virtually every team will enjoy from its new imports.

Hockey prose is fine for inclusion in any Labor Day beach reading list, just know that if it’s marketed as new season forecast, it’s fiction.

Summer State of the Team - The Defensemen

Washington Captials - secondary logo“Offense sells tickets, but defense wins games” is how the old adage goes, and in our on-going offseason look at the organization, we examine a blueline corps with a new face, an old face returning, and a bunch of fresh faces looking to make some noise.

Competition for the 7 projected defensive spots should be fierce, and even a few bad practices or scrimmages may be the difference between suiting up for an NHL club or returning to Juniors or Europe.

Karl Alzner — Washington’s first-round pick in June’s 2007 NHL Entry Draft, Alzner plays a surprisingly mature game, with high panic threshold and excellent on-ice awareness. Not a big banger, nor prone to unleash a slap shot from the point too often, Alzner plays a reliable, steady game that will eventually eat up big minutes in the NHL. For now, it seems, he’s slated to return to the WHL’s Calgary Hitmen, though there is speculation that he may get a taste of NHL duty at the start of the season before being returned to his junior club.

Continue reading ›

Checking in with Steve Eminger

The Caps’ site has posted Mike Vogel’s excellent interview with defenceman Steve Eminger; check it out here.

Washington Capitals Depth Chart, Summer 2007

Herewith, our attempt to devise a depth chart for the Caps to coincide with the recent completion of the team’s annual Rookie Development Camp. It’s important to note that with it we are not forecasting specific line combos but rather attempting to slot players by position according to their professional production and most recent performances in evaluative settings. It’s also important to note that a number of forwards in the Caps’ system play more than one position up front. The Russian elites and Matt Pettinger appear locks on the left side for well into the next decade, whereas the right side seems to carry many more question marks.

We’ve envisioned this as a file hopefully sparking spirited reaction and respectful challenge. We welcome your proposed modifications.

OFBs take on the Washington Capitals Depth Chart

Eminger, Suts Re-up

The Caps this morning announced the resigning of defenseman Steve Eminger and center Brian Sutherby. Terms were not disclosed.

Update: Tarik has the details — both received one-year pacts, Eminger’s for a million bucks, Suts at 800k. Also, the Caps today announced the signing of free agent, depth center Jason Morgan. The 30-year-old Morgan got a cup of coffee with the Minnesota Wild last season (four games) and 57 with Houston of the American Hockey League.

The Flea Market Opens

Cup'pa JoeWe are now full on in the throes of the end of the offseason’s offseason (mercifully, AMC last night offered up an 8:00 airing of ‘Slapshot,’ perhaps as a bit of a kickoff to the NHL’s off-ice action this month). By that I mean that any moment now we could see cross the transom the first of what typically is a string of trades clubs make to commence their offseason rebuilding. This June the pre-draft dealing buzz isn’t quite what it was last, but I’ve seen too many Draft-Eve seasons to know better. The first shoe will eventually drop, and off we’ll be. And unlike last June, when the Caps were just out of the first turn in its rebuild race, this summer management has pledged to be an active player for new players.

Likely we won’t see a blockbuster like last June’s Panthers’ dealing of Roberto Luongo (for junk; and we may not see such lopsidedness again in this lifetime). Then again, we may see Patrick Marleau moved. The game within the game taking place now through next Friday night involves the leagues GMs sorting through their UFA and RFA lists, comparing last season’s payroll with ‘07-’08’s projected cap, and charting a course for correction and improvement. For some clubs, payroll will be pared and some prime players moved. For others (the Caps), payroll will increase, assets added. A fair bit of this correction will take place over the course of the next 10 days.

Beyond being super submerged below the salary cap (by like tens of millions of dollars), this summer the Caps have consistently and publicly pledged to address their roster remedies through “trades,” Hershey graduations, and potentially the UFA market. In all of their public statements about offseason upgrades, all of management has consistently IDed dealing as a planned strategem, which struck me as brazen in its confidence. Notable, effective deals require willing dance partners. Two to tango. In mid-April, how could Caps’ management have been assured of them come mid-June?

The answer may not be all that secret or surprising. Because of the team’s plethora of draft picks dating back to 2002, and coupled with the Hershey Bears’ fabulous success the past two seasons, GM George McPhee has strong cards in his dealing hand. He is, for instance, loaded at left wing. And after last June’s work by his scouts in Vancouver, the organization suddenly seems deep in net. He is perhaps only a year or so away from being enviably deep on the blueline. And again with this Entry Draft, he has multiple picks up high (two picks each in rounds one and two). Add to these factors the team’s unrivaled cap space, and the Caps clearly are a power player on the phones the next 10 days. Continue reading ›

Knee-jerks: @ Buffalo, 3/21/07

And back to reality for the Caps, with a visit to the high-flying Buffalo Sabres bringing the Caps back down to Earth. The Caps were very game in the first, but Buffalo’s talent rose to the top in the second, putting the game away.kneejerk

  • Shaone Morrisonn had a good pinch later in the game, and played some solid defense, but the high-sticking double-minor he took in the first put the Caps in a spot.
  • The Caps’ power play looked, well, confused. The passing wasn’t really up to snuff, and Alex Ovechkin continued his season-long trouble of holding onto the puck, causing trouble in trying to gain the offensive zone.
  • Speaking of things we’d like to see on the power play, Brian Pothier’s bomb from near the blueline was impressive. I’m not sure why he’s hesitant to use it on the man-up (or Milan Jurcina, for that matter), but it couldn’t hurt, at this point.
  • The only real highlight for Caps fans is Brashear’s clear win over Andrew Peters.YouTube Preview Image
  • Brooks Laich continues to be offensively assertive, though it’s not paying off. He’s taking the puck to the cage and showing some good stick-handling. At some point he needs to pot a few, but hes going in the right direction.
  • Milan Jurcina against pasted a few opponents, but his hooking penalty couldn’t have come at a worse time — the Caps get on the board, they may have a bit of momentum, then *boom*, time to go a man-down.
  • Boyd Gordon has to find a way to keep his stick throughout his penalty-killing shifts. Seems like he’s broken or lost his twig a lot recently.
  • The team has settled down, overall, in front of Kolzig, but you’d really like to see him make the stop on the second Buffalo goal.
  • Drew Stafford looked pretty darn good. His move on Eminger was a thing of beauty.

Buffalo continues it’s march to the post-season, and the Caps get Carolina tonight, and get a chance to wipe the bad taste out of their mouth by trying to play the role of spoiler. While I don’t expect the ice to be as tilted as it was for the Sabres contest, it’s still an up-hill task.

Knee-jerks: Practice, 3/20/07

With an alternate work schedule today, I was able to attend my first Caps practice since training camp and first visit to Kettler Capitals Iceplex since the ribbon cutting press conference. I took a few notes and will present them in typical OFB Knee-Jerk style.

  • I’d estimate the attendance at about 50-75 fans. A practice at high-noon can’t hurt and it makes me wish I worked closer to Ballston. It’s probably just as well because an “extended lunch” would probably become a bad habit.
  • Attendance from the MSM included Lindsay Czarniak. Here’s hoping her non-game day visit means improved quantity and quality of Caps’ coverage on News4.
  • Team mood seemed to be quite good. Amazing what winning — and winning big — can do.
  • Through most of the practice, the top two stars of Sunday’s game were skating on the same line. Semin on the right wing and Fleishmann on the left. Beech centered them.
  • Ovechkin was sporting a fish tank off his helmet, courtesy of Dan Boyle.
  • With the hand injury, Pettinger was still practicing, albeit he was the lone man wearing red.
  • At some point during drills, both Ovechkin and Semin each tried to complete a “Wheeler goal.”
  • The last 5 minutes of the “official” practice icluded a shootout competition. Chris Clark’s team, clad in black, pitted against the Russians & Co., donning white. The cheers grew louder with each goal scored by the Men in Black. I soon found out the reason for the commotion. The losing team in white, upon their loss, took to the ice, laid down on their backs, and began a series of crunches. I didn’t notice if Brent Johnson had to endure the punishment of loss.
  • An impromptu unofficial drill took place after practice with Brent Johnson in net surrounded by Brashear, Clark, Laich, Eminger and others as a shot was taken from the top of the circle. BJ would leave a rebound for one of the masses to pick up the sluff and try to score. I did not keep track.
  • I was able to thank Lindsay for dramatic reduction of News4 sports replays that include slowed down action and cheesy sound effects. The SportsMachine style of replay, mercifully, seems to be headed to pasture with its trainer.
  • When asked if WRC had named a replacement for the top sports anchor, Lindsay told me that she and Dan Hellie will split those duties. Congrats to both. With split responsibilities, all sports not owned by Dan Snyder should get increased coverage.

Trade-Trauma Tuesday: Wrapup and Perspective

cupajoe.jpegJust my humble opinion, but from 2002 through 2006 there is an exceptionally impressive body of scouting and drafting work accomplished by George McPhee and his team of scouts. Having said that, my sense is that they seldom look back on the 2001 Entry Draft — much anticipated, highly lauded for its overal quality and depth — with much fondness. In their defense, the Caps were without a first-round pick that year. Their first selection came 58th overall, which they used to select Nathan Paetsch. In the third round, they tabbed Owen Fussey with the 90th pick. In the fourth round, Jeff Lucky at no. 125. None are with the organization today.

I’ve long been of the opinion that a healthy, playoff-viable NHL club cannot strike out with its selections at any draft; the compensation required for it is too implausible in succeeding drafts. Even with 2002’s success (Semin, Gordon, Eminger, Max II, and through trades Fleischmann and Klepis), there’s a price to be paid for 2001’s failure, and to some extent I think we’re seeing that this season. A lot of the league strengthened itself with that terrific ‘01 class, and the Caps did not.

Jiri Novotny’s acquisition from Buffalo yesterday can be viewed within the prism of belatedly addressing the Caps’ ‘01 shortcomings. An ‘01 draftee, 22nd overall by the Sabres, Novotny now joins new teammate Shaone Morrisonn (Bruins, no. 19 overall) from that class. The Caps at long last have somewhat filled the gaping hole left by summer ’01’s poor drafting.

Speaking of entry drafts, the fax ink from yesterday’s deal with Buffalo wasn’t dry before visitors to the Caps’ message boards could download seemingly dozens of pages of protest from the glass-is-not-only-half-empty, it’s-got-a-chipped-edge-to-meet-your-mouth crowd. At OFB, we’ve long referred to them as the Doom and Gloom set. Their chief point of outrage, it seemed, was a collective sense that the ‘07 Entry Draft was “weak,” and so the Buffalo first rounder, late as it was certain be, wasn’t anything to be happy over. Interesting. 2002, I remember vividly, was alleged to be among the worst pool of talent ever. Even 1996’s draft, which genuinely can be labeled atrocious, eventually delivered Dainius Zubrus to D.C. My point is, every NHL draft possesses talented young hockey players; the job of McPhee and his scouts is to find it.

I’ve another bone to pick with the message board GMs: for years we’ve had to endure their claims that when it comes to Dainius Zubrus, he was a hopelessly misplaced, “non-finishing” top-line center. Let’s all agree that he’s not a no. 1 pivot on a playoff club. But doesn’t it stand to reason that were he more the checking line kind of guy, he most assuredly wouldn’t fetch a no. 1 pick . . . let alone two? And yet, when that’s what Buffalo returned yesterday, these same naysayers wrung their hands over the “poor” return. Hypocrites.

Yesterday was a frenzy of attempted fact gathering by fans and media related to player movement, all of it more or less pursued on line. TSN and the NHL Network were broadcasting breathless accounts of the transactions all day long. One GM recently told Sports Illustrated that deadline day “ought to be a holiday in Canada.” Locally, we in the Capitals’ community are indebted to the committed labor of Tarik El-Bashir, who was lodged all morning, afternoon, and evening at Verizon Center, regularly updating his blog with trade intelligence, and Mike Vogel, who for a period of time yesterday afternoon was brought into the Caps’ hockey operations’ inner circle. The efforts of both men made for a marvelously compelling afternoon. If you weren’t convinced before about the revolution taking place in hockey news coverage — most particularly this season — yesterday ought to have ushered in a fresh reconsideration for you.

Trade-Trauma Tuesday: Wrapup and Perspective

cupajoe.jpegJust my humble opinion, but from 2002 through 2006 there is an exceptionally impressive body of scouting and drafting work accomplished by George McPhee and his team of scouts. Having said that, my sense is that they seldom look back on the 2001 Entry Draft — much anticipated, highly lauded for its overal quality and depth — with much fondness. In their defense, the Caps were without a first-round pick that year. Their first selection came 58th overall, which they used to select Nathan Paetsch. In the third round, they tabbed Owen Fussey with the 90th pick. In the fourth round, Jeff Lucky at no. 125. None are with the organization today.

I’ve long been of the opinion that a healthy, playoff-viable NHL club cannot strike out with its selections at any draft; the compensation required for it is too implausible in succeeding drafts. Even with 2002’s success (Semin, Gordon, Eminger, Max II, and through trades Fleischmann and Klepis), there’s a price to be paid for 2001’s failure, and to some extent I think we’re seeing that this season. A lot of the league strengthened itself with that terrific ‘01 class, and the Caps did not.

Jiri Novotny’s acquisition from Buffalo yesterday can be viewed within the prism of belatedly addressing the Caps’ ‘01 shortcomings. An ‘01 draftee, 22nd overall by the Sabres, Novotny now joins new teammate Shaone Morrisonn (Bruins, no. 19 overall) from that class. The Caps at long last have somewhat filled the gaping hole left by summer ’01’s poor drafting.

Speaking of entry drafts, the fax ink from yesterday’s deal with Buffalo wasn’t dry before visitors to the Caps’ message boards could download seemingly dozens of pages of protest from the glass-is-not-only-half-empty, it’s-got-a-chipped-edge-to-meet-your-mouth crowd. At OFB, we’ve long referred to them as the Doom and Gloom set. Their chief point of outrage, it seemed, was a collective sense that the ‘07 Entry Draft was “weak,” and so the Buffalo first rounder, late as it was certain be, wasn’t anything to be happy over. Interesting. 2002, I remember vividly, was alleged to be among the worst pool of talent ever. Even 1996’s draft, which genuinely can be labeled atrocious, eventually delivered Dainius Zubrus to D.C. My point is, every NHL draft possesses talented young hockey players; the job of McPhee and his scouts is to find it.

Yesterday was a frenzy of attempted fact gathering by fans and media related to player movement, all of it more or less pursued on line. TSN and the NHL Network were broadcasting breathless accounts of the transactions all day long. One GM recently told Sports Illustrated that deadline day “ought to be a holiday in Canada.” Locally, we in the Capitals’ community are indebted to the committed labor of Tarik El Bashir, who was lodged all morning, afternoon, and evening at Verizon Center, regularly updating his blog with trade intelligence, and Mike Vogel, who for a period of time yesterday afternoon was brought into the Caps’ hockey operations’ inner circle. The efforts of both men made for a marvelously compelling afternoon. If you weren’t convinced before about the revolution taking place in hockey news coverage — most particularly this season — yesterday ought to have ushered in a fresh reconsideration for you.