Making predictions in any sport is a challenge–otherwise by now we’d all have bled the Vegas sports books dry and be jetting across North America to attend NHL playoff games. Oh, and I’d purchase a home in St. Lucia for the off-season (got to keep Mrs. OC happy).
We’ve discussed the frequent futility of preseason predictions before; yet, as you’ll see below, some more recent entries are similarly apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate. Yet, whether by stroke of luck or true insight, a few Nostradamuses (Nostramii?) hit the mark well enough to think that maybe, just maybe, there’s more to the prognostication game than a bits-and-bytes version of pin the tail on the donkey.
So now, a look back at Capitals-related predictions worthy of praise, as well as those that the authors wish were forgotten.
USA Today’s preseason NHL predictions were predictably awful. Nine of their panel of 10 “experts” awarded the Hart Trophy to Sidney Crosby; the lone trend-bucker picked Roberto Luongo. 10 of 10 were wrong on the Points Leader guess: 7 for Crosby, 3 for Joe Thornton.
None chose Washington to win the Southeast. Granted, the four Carolina picks were reasonable — after all, it was pretty darned close to correct — but not one of the analysts thought the Caps had it in them? Three supposed experts chose Atlanta, two Tampa, and one Florida. All wrong.
Lest we dwell too much on the negative, the Caps were dark-horse favorites for some. The Hockey News’ Adam Proteau was impressively prophetic, picking the Caps as his “worst-to-first division champ.” Proteau’s crystal ball was particularly translucent when he wrote:
Now, coach Glen Hanlon may not survive the season if Washington stumbles out of the gate as it tries to make all the new faces (including potential Calder Trophy candidate Nicklas Backstrom) fit in. Call it a hunch, but I bet they’ll jell into one of the league’s swiftest, most offensively dangerous teams . . . and drop many a jaw in the process.
John Buccigross of ESPN is now firmly aboard the Ovechkin bandwagon. Yet his preseason thoughts, as well as his revised predictions in January, showed little faith in the Capitals, predicting a 14th-place finish in both lists. “Eighty points should be the Capitals’ goal; they had 70 last season and at least they could go into next season knowing they improved.”
Terri Frei, also of ESPN, picked Sidney Crosby, Jaromir Jagr, and Eric Staal as his top three Eastern contenders for the Hart Trophy. Continuing with ESPN analysts but on the plus side of the ledger, Scott Burnside said on September 30, “The Capitals will finish third in the Southeast Division and eighth in the Eastern Conference.” Nice call, Scott.
I hesitate to bring up Hockeybuzz.com, the “entertainment” Web site, since Eklund and company constantly make wild predictions of all kinds with little regard for accountability (unless they get one right, of course). But it is worth noting that, in March, Eklund’s Eastern Conference predictions were still way off. He even used the old trick of making über-exact predictions to imply importance–which, by the way, apparently works when setting the sale price of your home as well.
Yet not one of Eklund’s predicted playoff ranks were correct, despite making the selections with only a month left in the season.
1. NEW JERSEY….108 2. MONTREAL…….107 3. CAROLINA……..101 4. PITTSBURGH….105 5. OTTAWA………..101 (46 WINS) 6. NY RANGERS….101 (43 WINS) 7. BOSTON…………94 8. PHILADELPHIA…88 9. FLORIDA…………85 10. WASHINGTON…84 11. BUFFALO………..83 12. TORONTO……….74 13. NY ISLANDERS..73 14. ATLANTA………..72 15.TAMPA BAY………62
Finally, we end with Sports Illustrated’s Allan Muir, who managed to be dead wrong and absolutely right in sequential paragraphs:
The player who’ll generate more highlight reel moments than anyone not named Crosby: Vincent Lecavalier (Lightning)
Look for the reigning Rocket Richard Trophy-winner to not only improve on last season’s totals — 55 goals sounds about right — but lead the league in those oh-so-close moments that force first-star performances out of opposing goaltenders.
Um . . . no. Lecavalier had a good year, but Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin surpassed not only Lecavalier but Crosby as well, to the surprise of no one who’d actually watched them play.
Might want to keep a bag packed: Cristobal Huet (Canadiens)
The Habs are young and very promising, but this season will be about building towards that promise, not delivering on it. With Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak set to man the pipes for the next decade, Huet is a luxury with which the Habs can afford to part. His veteran services are likely to be in high demand after Christmas, at which point GM Bob Gainey can cash him in for a few more pieces of the puzzle.
Right on the money about Huet — except GM George McPhee took Gainey to the cleaners, so the return for Huet was less of a puzzle piece and more of an afterthought. And the #1 seed Canadiens may have something to say about “building . . . not delivering” on their promise this year.
The Capitals are expecting some prominent media coverage of the team’s winning ways next week. Alexander Ovechkin and the team will be the feature cover story for next week’s Hockey News. Also likely next week, a Michael Farber feature on AO and the team in Sports Illustrated. 
It’s perhaps impossible to overstate the impact that the arrival of Bruce Boudreau has had on the Caps, and it’s true that Alexander Ovechkin’s third season in the NHL has been his best – positively Hart Trophy candidate worthy and a catalyst for the team’s playoff contention. But winning hockey can’t be a one-man show, even double-shifted, and if you really want to know why the Caps are as dangerous as they are these days, consider that their attack is double-barreled, launched from the back end by the 22-year-old Calgary native who, at the other end of the ice, slings heavy lead with his point blasts and pinched-in pulverizers. 
The stats back it up. Both players have enjoyed perfect health this season, playing in all of their team’s games. Through 49 games Bouwmeester has 8 goals and 10 assists while skating a -3. Reasonably nice numbers on a mediocre hockey club. In 47 games with the Caps Green has accumulated 14 goals and 16 assists, skating a -2, and garnered the attention of the entire hockey world, splashy U.S. sports press like SI and ESPN, and caused a lot of indigestion and heartache among nearly 30 general managers who passed on him in 2004. 
When it comes to new media and its coverage of the NHL, Ted Leonsis is both visionary and trailblazer, and so it should come as no surprise that his thinking on the matter is anything but static. When “Hockey Night in Canada” came to D.C. a couple of weeks back and 
