On Frozen Blog

Ovechkin on the ice after the final horn - photo by Kate McGovern / Off Wing Opinion

The Kings have a wealth of gifted young players in their organization and a 30th place standing to show for it. The Caps have a stud, some very good young players, and a 29th place standing to show for it. They also have thorny contract negotiations taking place (sort of) with their stud. Coach Boudreau possesses what might be termed fluency with a fair number of players in the Kings’ organization. Additionally, the Kings have a history of parting with a motherload of talented youth in order to acquire the services of the game’s premiere talent. It’s Tinseltown, after all.

And then there’s this: in year three of AO’s reign in D.C. the Caps are meandering toward a finish of between 75-80 points, and potentially a fourth consecutive last-place finish in the Southeast.

To quote Bryan Ferry, don’t stop the dance.

The ‘Net is filled (overly so) with innuendo-specius speculation-baseless rink rumors, and I’m not pecking away at the keyboard this holiday weekend to contribute to that. Rather, I’m here to suggest that, should the Caps and Ovechkin arrive at an impasse in new deal discussions, excruciatingly painful though it may be, a deal with the Kings could make sense.

Caps’ fans do have to consider this possibility.

We know that contract talks between Caps’ management and team Ovechkin aren’t progressing terribly well because (1) many months after Sidney got his new pact AO still doesn’t have his and (2) someone with access to the particulars told me so. This is not to suggest that all is hopeless or even that the genuinely serious, roll-up-the-sleeves-and-sip-late-night-coffee talks have come and gone. They haven’t. However, one vital area of concern appears to have emerged: the team and the star are lodged in different compensation realms. Worse, both sides have eminently reasonable defenses for their positions.

Let us say, just for argument’s sake, that AO is seeking upwards of $10 million per season. Even if the Caps wanted to pay him that they couldn’t. The CBA is explicit: no single player can earn more than 20 percent of a team’s payroll. The Caps are currently a hair below $40 million in player payroll. They’d need to be at $50 million before opening night next season in order to accommodate a $10 million demand from team Ovechkin. You might plausibly forecast an ‘08-’09 Caps roster boasting the additions of say Eric Fehr and Karl Alzner, but that wouldn’t take you anywhere near $50 million. Then there’s the very real possibility that Olie Kolzig’s $5.5 million compensation comes off the books beginning this spring, and that he’s replaced by someone markedly cheaper.

{Important correction: The actual CBA, available on line here, (you will need Adobe Acrobat Reader version 6.0 at a minimum), illuminates maximum player compensation thusly:

“50.6 Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses; Fixed Dollar Amount of Player Salary

(a) No SPC may provide for a total aggregate Player Salary and Bonuses that is in excess of twenty (20) percent of the Upper Limit for any League Year (the Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses). For a Player signing a multi-year SPC pursuant to which he receives the Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year during the term of such SPC, the Maximum Player Salary and Bonuses for every League Year covered by the multi-year SPC shall be based upon the Upper Limit at the time the SPC was signed.

So it’s as clear as day.

The Caps in fact could pay Ovechkin $20 million annually were the league-wide, per-team cap $100. (That’s not happening under Bettman.)}

Ken Lay couldn’t make these accounting numbers work for a massive Ovechkin contract. In a very real sense, the Caps have their hands tied by prudent fiscal management by management.

And this blogger wouldn’t have it any other way.

No doubt General Manager George McPhee has formulated some specific thoughts about a player’s earning 20 percent of payroll and the likelihood of that player’s team contending for a Stanley Cup. The Ducks, who today are taking a cap hit of approximately $51 million, won the Cup last season, I’d wager, because their big two on defense (Pronger and Niedermeyer) were well but not exorbitantly paid. Moreover, they got Teemu Selanne’s 48 goals at a bargain rate. What of the Cup-winning ‘Canes and ‘Ning payrolls? Any bank-breakers within? In fact, the absence of astute fiscal management in Tampa Bay forced a breakup (Modin, Khabibulin) of that champions’ roster. Mediocre Tampa is today a one-line attack and a glaring vulnerability in net. And will be so for a while.

The Red Wings have enjoyed some exemplary regular seasons of late carrying along Nik Lidstrom’s enormous salary. Anything else to show for it?

These are accounting — and therefore fan-unfriendly — questions for management to ponder.

Which brings us back to a hypothetical glance at the last-place Kings. Twenty-five year-old Cammalleri is a rising star, and we already know what Boudreau thinks of him. 2006 first-rounder Jonathon Bernier made the Kings and started and won his first game in net against the defending champs in October. He’s back in Lewiston now, but his immediate future looks rather bright. No deal for a once-in-a-generation talent like Ovechkin could be carried off with merely a no. 1 liner and a no. 1 prospect in net. But what if the Kings could be persuaded to sweeten the pot all the way up to include Jack Johnson as well? What if such a deal deposited no.1 players at three separate positions for the Caps, and you were at a negotiations impasse with Alex, and as a management team you were convinced that a mega-contract not only couldn’t be achieved but was Tampa-like limiting going forward?

How good would that deal look then?