17 May, 2008

Category Archives: Southeast Division

Savoring the Historic Week That Was

Some time near 8:30 Friday night, Capitals’ fans, having spent weeks residing in a purgatory of indeterminate postseason fate, received an invitation from an seraphim angel named Radek Dvorak to enter an unearthly realm of ecstasy.

At that moment in Raleigh, North Carolina, at 19:48 of period 2, while his team was playing for nothing but pride, the Florida Panthers’ right winger ripped a low wrist shot past Carolina Hurricanes’ netminder Cam Ward to stake the ‘Cats to an unlikely 4-2 lead. The shorthanded tally sucked the life out of a sold-out HBC Center. It also occasioned a big surge in beer swigging and the hugging of strangers by Caps’ fans following in Washington.

A win Friday night and the ‘Canes would have secured the Southeast division title — their third since 2002. Two hours earlier, failure in that endeavor seemed unfathomable; this was a team that had spent all but about two weeks in first place in the Southeast, was just two seasons removed from a Stanley Cup victory, and now had on its heels a Capitals’ team that had known only last-place finishes the last three seasons.

Hockey hopes spring eternal in spring in many parts, but not these. That’s the legacy within which the Era of Ovechkin dawned. And true to script, during Friday’s third period Panther after Panther made a parade to the penalty box, their two-goal lead eventually halved and netminder Craig Anderson under a near 50-shot seige. A spring of supreme stress here coalesced into a dungeon of the highest duress. Samsanov Agonistes.

“In Washington,” one of the Hurricanes’ broadcasters commented early in period 3, “the clock can’t move fast enough.”

Truer words were never spoken. Eventually the game clock in Carolina arrived at zero, Pinehurst no. 3 beckoning the ‘Canes, and in that instant, Caps’ fans were removed from all past April ills and into a springtime Friday night frenzy the likes of which they hadn’t seen since 1998. A Friday night of free-flowing frothies and free love — with perhaps dozens of little babies named Radek arriving at Sibley and Suburban next winter.

Saturday morning HockeyWashington awoke to a surreal reality: seeing the Caps, with a victory that night, move from ninth in the East to third. Better still, the Capitals’ fate was at long last in their own Misson hockey gloves. Actually, by virtue of Carolina’s Friday night flop the Caps technically were already in third, by virtue of playing fewer games and being tied at 92 points with the ‘Canes, but Saturday night’s game against Florida was the team’s final exam on the season — worth 90 percent of its grade.

Red Out
Red Out
If Friday night was a sudden shockwave to the league standings, Tuesday night at Verizon Center was a sonic boom and a one-color kaleidoscope of unity delivered by a region ignited by an amazing sports story. One sensed within a rapidly enlargening hockey supporting community here a collective hunger to get behind a buzz-generating team. The Redskins lost more than they won under Joe Gibbs II. There’s a pedestrian quality to the Wizards — no longer really bad, but never really good, either. The ‘Nats are rebuilding and years away from contending. On Tuesday night in Verizon Center sports Washington was represented in unprecedented volume and unified uniform.

The home crowds for hockey have been growing and large for a couple of months now, but Tuesday’s ranked in another supportive realm. It was so startling to see the Sea of Red precisely because so many enemy sweaters had long filled so many home seats. If there were 18,000 fannies in the seats Tuesday night, 17,500 of them were Caps’ supporters.

“That was the best [home] crowd I’ve ever seen,” Mike Vogel told me over the weekend.

Better than the white-out postseason crowds of the powerful late ’80s Caps’ clubs at Capital Center?

“Those crowds weren’t loud like Tuesday’s,” Vogs added.

All we knew when the team returned home from its spectacularly successful six-game road trip was that it would play before large crowds here — likely, sellouts. We had no idea that the stands-shaking Redskins crowds of raucous old RFK would at last get a run for their rancor on F St.

For hockey.

Late on Wednesday afternoon the Caps’ communications staff, struggling perhaps like the fanbase to keep up with the speed of the hockey’s team’s ascent, announced the continuation of home Red Outs. The modest delay may have played a role in Thursday night’s home environment for Tampa: quite good, but not nearly as Red, not nearly as ear-splitting. The Caps’ nerves on ice that night, too, had a hand in quieting the mood a bit.

For some among HockeyWashington, Saturday’s first eighteen hours were a painful crawl toward a determinative destiny, while for others, savoring suddenly arrived at salvation, time couldn’t stand still enough. After all, morning paper reading, home cleaning, and car oil changing were all performed in third place. I imagined a Saturday morning Sea of Caps’ caps at Costco, among Saturday household chore performing the Red Army wearing the Capitals’ relic Old School look of a failure past now transformed in mere hours’ time into something fresh, vibrant, honor-bestowing, and most especially hip.

Chinatown was Red with anticipation at 4:05. I saw it.

Arriving early in Verizon Center’s press lounge, I surveyed beat media to see where Saturday night ranked in their list of most significant sporting events they’d personally covered. For the Washington Times’ Corey Masisak, only two events — the ACC basketball tournament won by underdog Maryland a few years back and his first Army-Navy football game rivaled the hockey he’d chronicled this March and April and most especially this past week.

“Maryland was like the 6 seed and they went down beat the numbers one, two, and three [seeds],” he told me.

WTOP’s Jonathon Warner has been involved in professional sports journalism for more than 30 years. For him, Saturday night had only George Mason’s Cinderella run in the NCAAs two years back as a rival to the Revival in Red.

“This is huge — this run they’re on, it’s actually given me chills of late,” Warner told me.

“You can feel the buzz,” Steve Kolbe told me. “Washington, D.C., as a whole has grown as a hockey town. That puck drops tonight, we’ll all have goosebumps.”

The Times’ Thom Loverro told me that in his 16 years at the paper Saturday night’s game “ranked right up there” among all regular season games he’d followed in Washington.

Next I asked the Washington Post’s Tarik El Bashir.

“I think you heard me down in the press room earlier tonight ask, has there been another comeback this dramatic in Washington pro sports history?”

“This team was left for dead on Thanksgiving day,” he added.

Tarik’s covered the Indy 500, “where you have 350,000 people,” he noted. But when he considered the lead-up to Saturday night, all of the must-wins the Caps had to have, Saturday raced to the top of his biggest games list.

“We awoke a sleeping giant here,” owner Leonsis, clad again in red, observed late Saturday night. That was a most pleasant observation to encounter Sunday morning, confirming that last week really wasn’t just a dream.

Postcards from a Championship Night

SE Champs
SE Champs
Don't Stop Believin
Don't Stop Believin
Warmups
Warmups
Your Washington Capitals
Your Washington Capitals

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Video Postcards from a Championship Night

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SE Division Champions: Caps 3 / Cats 1

Unleash the Fury

Skill, Check; Heart, Check; Leadership, Check; Saturday Night, We’d Like Lady Luck as Well


A Stretch Run’s First Hint of Nerves Yields to the MVP’s MoJo

You expected less drama from the Cardiac Caps?

Bruce Boudreau this week made a point of white-boarding his hockey team’s underwhelming and underachieving performances against the Tampa Bay Lightning this season, and his team’s middle 20 minutes Thursday night gave him fresh lecturing material. A dominant opening 20 minutes, exclamation-pointed by a 20-5 shotclock slaughter, was followed by tentative, tense, and sloppy play in period two.   

“How many times have we seen that — teams dominate in the first period and not get rewarded enough, the other team comes back in the second period and plays a lot better,” Coach Boudreau noted in his post-game press conference.

“It happens almost every time,” he added. “Guys didn’t want to make a mistake and they wanted to play perfect hockey.

“Sometimes you just gotta play,” he said. 

The longer the game played “ugly” the more dangerous the atmosphere became for the favorite. There were even unforced physical errors — Nick Backstrom falling and surrendering the puck dangerously behind his own net, Cristobal Huet nearly sliding head-first into the sideboards in pursuit of a third-period puck — to remind Caps’ fans of the Ghosts of Gonchars past in a big game. And in Karri Ramo (36 saves) Caps’ fans confronted yet another no-name opposing netminder seemingly hell-bent on wrecking a Caps’ season.

And this being the history-plagued Caps, misfortune’s cherry was needed on top of the melting sundae of a season, so a Brooks Laich goal in the first period that would have knotted the game at one was disallowed by the zebras, citing, according to Boudreau, “incidental contact” from which ”the goalie didn’t have time to recover.” Which prompted Mike Vogel to ask the coach, “Is there such a thing as two minutes for incidental contact yet?”

Not to worry. This season, there is in the Capitals’ uniform he who is making it his life’s mission to re-write scoring records as well as a new chapter in his team’s Chronicles of Spring, with a much better ending.   

Getting home through this two-week minefield of lose-once-and-you’re-through, inevitably there was going to be a performance in which the young skated their age — actually showed some sign of being aware of the stakes and reacting as the young are supposed to. Thursday was it. There was also this factor: winning games you’re supposed to win is occasionally tougher than winning those you aren’t.

The game turned on Vincent Lecavalier’s third period injury. Matt Cooke clobbered him in open ice, and while Cooke probably went appropriately unpunished, Tampa reacted as hockey teams typically do when their star player is violently removed from a game: with vengeance. On the ensuing Caps’ power play, Alexander Ovechkin scorched a wrister past Ramo that unleashed Def Leppard-like loudness in an arena that had spent nearly 50 game minutes united in an updated version of woes of old: ”They’re gonna come this far and blow it against the bottom-feeding ‘Bolts?”

Lecavalier’s absence was also acutely felt on Tampa’s 4-minute man-advantage from a John Erskine high stick. The last-place ‘Bolts still ranked 6th in the league on the power play. The ensuing effort was competent but lacked its customary lethal fright. Then Boyd Gordon made it 3-1, occasioning another eardrum-paining celebration among the red-clad. 

Greg Wyshynski, who yesterday authored “Can You Smell the Sidney/Ovie in the Air?”, stood next to Dmitry Chesnokov and me amid the relief-delerium and shouted, barely audibly, ”Washington isn’t a hockey town!” to demonstrate the very changed air within the rink on F Street. Dmitry and I took turns replying, “We can’t hear you.”  

The Caps, a team that spent years recently seeking 5 consecutive wins, won their sixth in row Thursday. (They last won six in a row in 2001). At least for one day, they moved into the Eastern conference’s top eight, and postseason qualification. Their no. 1 star Thursday night is also the league’s no. 1 star of 2008. Soon, formally acknowledged as such.   

“We have so much firepower on this team, and so much trust, if we play our way we can come back and score goals, and it’s just a matter of time,” Brooks Laich said afterward. Laich in his breakout season is also a disciple spreading the gospel of puck in a region increasingly receptive to it. 

“You can obviously tell in the building that hockey’s really catching on,” he said.

“It’s starting to become a hockey town.”              

 

Yet Another Comeback and Hope Still Lives: Caps 4 / Bolts 1

Washington Capitals’ Playoff Math Redux

The Washington Capitals’ season is down to the proverbial wire: one or two games remain for each of the teams in the Eastern Conference race, and that race is tighter than fitting these guys into adjacent Metro Rail seats.

The Capitals received some help last night from New Jersey, who kept Boston to just one point with a late goal, a two-point night from former Capital Dainius Zubrus, and a shootout victory.

Pittsburgh chipped in by defeating the Flyers, in regulation. It certainly helps matters that the Penguins and Canadiens are battling for the first seed. Caps fans can only hope that Pittsburgh (on 4 days’ rest) plays Philly hard in their last game—Montreal must go at least 1-0-1 to ensure the Pens’ final game matters.
Yet Carolina won handily, led by Corey LaRose’s hat trick, putting the Southeast Division title firmly within their reach.

Read on for analysis, tiebreakers, and likely finishes . . . your own predictions and comments are welcome as always.

The Playoff Picture: Eastern Bubble Teams’ Remaining Games
Team Date H/A Vs. OFB Res Analysis Playoff Chances
Washington
.
90 points
3/25
3/27
3/29
4/1
4/3
4/5
Away
Away
Away
Home
Home
Home
Carolina
Tampa
Florida
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Florida
TU
LW
TU
TU
LW
TU
W
W
W
W
.
.
The Cardiac Caps won their first two games in heart-rending fashion; they won their next two with dominant performances, capped by last night’s victory in a sea of red. The Caps still need help from one or more of the teams they’re chasing, and more importantly they must look at Tampa and Florida as critical—both winnable games, but Coach Boudreau is certainly driving home that a winnable game is by no means already won.
7th Seed?
Carolina
.
92 points
3/25
3/28
3/29
4/1
4/2
4/4
Home
Home
Away
Away
Home
Home
Washington
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
Washington
Tampa Bay
Florida
TU
LW
LW
TU
TU
LW
OTL
W
L
L
W
.
Last week, “Suddenly the SE Division Title is no longer a foregone conclusion for Carolina.” Neither, it seems, is the making playoffs at all. But their win against Tampa puts them in good shape, and if they beat Florida the division crown is theirs.
.
T
iebreaker Scenario: The Caps would lose the first tiebreaker (wins), so they must exceed Carolina’s point total to win the Southeast.

SE Div Champs?
Ottawa
.
92 Points
4/3
4/4
Away
Home
Toronto
Boston
TU
TU
.
.
Given the oh-so-different ways the Sens and Caps started the season, it’s stunning to think that the Caps have a chance to bump the Senators out of the post season. The Sens head to Toronto Thursday night—and you know the Leafs are looking to play spoiler. Then Ottawa finishes its season hosting Boston a mere 24 hours later.
.
T
iebreaker Scenario: If the Caps and Sens end with the same number of points and wins, the Caps have the tiebreaker courtesy of their season sweep of the Senators. If the Sens go 1-1 and the Caps win out (or the Sens go 0-2 and the Caps 1-1), then the Caps are in. Unlikely but possible: the Sens could lose both games and the Caps could get two OTLs, thus giving the Sens the tiebreaker.

Golf in early April?
Boston
.
92 points
3/25
3/27
3/29
3/30
4/2
4/4
4/5
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Home
Toronto
Toronto
Ottawa
Buffalo
NJD
Ottawa
Buffalo
TU
LW
TU
TU
LL
TU
LW
W
W
W
OTL
OTL
.
.
The Devils helped the Caps a bit Wednesday night, though the Bruins came away with a point. What the Caps need most from Friday’s Boston-Ottawa tilt is a regulation win for either team—and whom Caps fans root for will depend on the outcome of Ottawa’s Thursday game. A three-point Bruins-Senators bout would be terrible.
.
T
iebreaker Scenario: Equaling the Bruins’ point total will get the Caps into the playoffs. But with three games remaining, the Bruins must go 1-1-0 or worse for the Caps to catch them.

6th Seed?
Buffalo
.
88 points
3/25
3/27
3/28
3/30
4/1
4/3
4/5
Home
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Ottawa
Ottawa
Montreal
Boston
Toronto
Montreal
Boston
TU
LL
LL
TU
TU
LL
LL
L
W
OTL
W
W
.
.
Last week: “4 of 5 against Montreal and Boston likely spells the end of their run unless Ryan Miller notches a couple shutouts.” An impressive 3-1-1 effort in the past five games has kept Buffalo alive, but with the number of teams ahead of them the Sabres will fall short of the playoffs this year.
Done
Philadelphia
.
91 points
3/25
3/28
3/29
4/2
4/4
4/6
Away
Away
Away
Away
Home
Home
NYR
NJD
NYI
Pittsburgh
NJD
Pittsburgh
LL
TU
LW
LL
TU
TU
W
OTL
W
L
.
.
Painful, but true: Capitals fans must root for Pittsburgh on the last day of the season. Though Philly finishes at home, the Devils are trying to stave off the Rangers to keep 4th and Pittsburgh is chasing the conference title.

T
iebreaker Scenario: Like the Bruins, equaling Philly’s point total will get the Caps into the playoffs. The Flyers must go 1-0-1 or worse to stay within the Caps’ reach.

8th Seed?

The Color of Success

My good friend Eric McErlain didn’t pick a good night to play hookie from the hockey rink. But he doesn’t have much red in his wardrobe anyway.

But first thing’s first. I asked for one WaPost columnist to attend Tuesday night and George Solomon sent two, including himself. There were enough Post reporters in attendance last night to fairly fill the media elevator. I messaged Dan Steinberg after the game, explaining to him my need now to call out the Post for ‘dissing the Wizards and Redskins in its Caps’ slant. Hah.

(Reader Dave: did you really deliver my letter to the Post yesterday?)

Every Caps’ player in the post game commented on the home crowd. The Caps Tuesday night established their bona fides as an aspiring playoff team to be reckoned with; their supporters in the stands likewise auditioned magnificently for the role of postseason noisemakers of distinction. Both are new to the endeavor — both seem very ready.

Those of us in the hockey blogging community wondered what would happen to our privileged perch in the Verizon Center press box when our sweet secret about this hockey team got out, and a tsunami of bandwagoning old media came a calling. Tuesday night, we learned. To accommodate all of the press demand for the big game the Caps’ media maven Nate Ewell filled every press box seat, two rows deep, on both sides of the sixth floor, and managed to fulfill every media request he fielded, new and old. That impressed me. I’m not going to suggest that should the team make a deep run in the playoffs we in new media will all be there to cover it . . . just maybe reminding Mr. Leonsis of his pledge to ‘Hockey Night in Canada’ to host us in his box should press credentials run short. Hah.

Wow but it was red in the rink. During the national anthem, with the lights dimmed, the three levels of red managed to cast a powerfully pervasive haze of hometown unity. Mr. Leonsis was beaming in the post-game locker room adorned in his red Caps’ sweater. Channel 4’s Lindsay Czarniak looked fetching in a stylish red sweater. (”Fetching”? That’s awful writing. The woman could fill a cathedral of male worshippers wearing a potato sack and mud mask.) Lisa Hillary was red literally from neckline to toe — eager to show off a new red paint job on her toes. Sportscasters Michael Jenkins and Dave Feldman brought their naturally red hair. I wore a smart looking red necktie.

You know who looked reddest of all? Peter Laviolette.

Our good friends from the Hershey Bears sure picked the right night for a visit. John Walton was blogging in-game and delightfully distracted from all those Bears’ injuries by the electric atmosphere in the rink. Tim Leone of the Patriot News was sharing with me his anticipation for next week’s Frozen Four, with the upstart, Cinderella Fighting Irish of Notre Dame having captured his former USC Trojan heart. Chris Poisal summed up the feelings of all from the farm: he came away impressed with this hockey team’s “swagger.” He told me during the second intermission that what he was seeing out on the ice Tuesday night reminded him a lot of the swagger the Hershey Bears had en route to their Calder Cup in 2006.

“This team is going to make the playoffs,” Poisal told me, “and once there, they are going to do damage.”

The game atmospheres feverish hockey fans fantastically improve correspond intimately to the magic their eyes consume. This new Red Army in town seemed Tuesday night unleashed as a fixture battalion on F Street. At times Tuesday, most especially when the home team delivered a glass-rattling check, they ascended to alarming realms of raucousness: with clenched fists they’d turn and pound on the glass partition separating them from the game’s media. It was, initially, somewhat scary — but scary good.

Chalk it up to excessive Red Hook.

Thursday night — and thirty months from now — I can envision the earth-toned-clad hockey fan arriving at the Phone Booth to looks of disdain from his impassioned puck peer in scarlet. Even Gang Green has gone red.

Let’s designate this Wednesday — mercifully for our panic-attack hockeyhearts a gameless day for the home team — a Code Red: meaning, ours is the team and sport white-hot in town, we its supporters now send screams of “Let’s Go Caps!” cascading through Metro tunnels and Green Turtles. Let’s bask in this red glow of victory all day and evening long, get dinner out of the way early and settle in before the TVs for a fresh set of Eastern conference showdowns. And even in our temporary, domestic R&R, dress for battle.

A Call to Return to the Red Light District


Hockey Rapture at the Phone Booth

Tonight, a Capitals playoff atmosphere returned to the Verizon Center for the first time in . . . well, in far too long.

My voice is shredded, my body exhausted . . . but my mind and heart are racing with joy, and thoughts abound of games played beyond April 5th—existing now only as not-yet-realized potential, but coming closer to coalescing every day. These few photos will hopefully impart some of the excitement of the night to you; feel free to share your own stories of elation.

It’s hard to describe the euphoria fans felt as the Caps’ dominance finally bore fruit in their third goal, and then their fourth. Then the “M-V-P!” chants began as Alex Ovechkin notched his latest gem, a 180-degree spin-a-rama goal that brought the crowd, yet again, to its feet. Even the Three Stars announcement was a celebration, with a grinning #3 Star Matt Cooke high-fiving #2 Star Sergei Fedorov as Fedorov came out for his curtain call. On the ice, and in the stands, the Caps and their supporters had one hell of a night.

Nothing is yet won, and the path to the playoffs remains steep; but on this night, the Capitals are champions.

He Really Took The RED OUT seriously! (no image editing, I just turned off redeye reduction)
He Really Took The RED OUT seriously! (no image editing, I just turned off redeye reduction)
Perhaps Lieutenant Colonel Bill Kilgore put it best:

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You Don’t Want A Postseason Piece of This: Caps 4 / Canes 1

Dear Tony, It’s a Really Big Hockey Night in D.C.

Mr. Tony Kornheiser
The Washington Post
1150 15th St. NW
Washington, DC 20071

April 1, 2008

Re. The Biggest Hockey Game in D.C. in a Decade

Dear Tony:

What a spectacular week for the Washington sports fan! The Nationals the other night christened an impressive new stadium — and in dramatic fashion. I’m sure you enjoyed the excitement of attending Opening Night in Nationals Park.

Imagine, though, if you could meet or even exceed Sunday evening’s electric atmosphere at the ballpark, with a heart-stopping, high-stakes sports event tonight at Verizon Center. The likelihood is high that you can.

Incredible as it may seem, Tony, the Washington Capitals tonight are playing their most important hockey game since the Stanley Cup finals of 1998. At home. With a victory against the Carolina Hurricanes tonight, the Capitals — lodged in 30th place out of 30 teams in the NHL at Thanksgiving — would be tied for first place in the league’s Southeast division in this the final week of the regular season. I’m not sure we’ve seen the likes of this kind of resurrection in all of professional sports this decade. What a story, right here at home!

Tonight at Verizon Center is an event I think that Washington’s sports media ought to luxuriate in. In fact, the entire week and its three hockey games here ought to be hyped like hockey hasn’t been in these parts ever. The entire town ought to get behind the Caps this week, and of course, local media play a pivotal role in that endeavor.

Which is kind of why I’m writing.

Great sports towns, it seems to me, are characterized by a local press reliably and spiritedly conveying that greatness. I’m one who’s been of the opinion that we haven’t quite had there here in some while (if ever). But rather than bemoan opportunities lost, I want to see new and old media alike get behind a once-in-a-lifetime talent in Alexander Ovechkin and his highly skilled and infectiously enthusiastic young teammates during this remarkable week of season-concluding play. The way they’ve represented Washington ever since Bruce Boudreau took over behind the bench merits it.

It can be alleged, without overstatement, that there is a playoff atmosphere to the Capitals’ schedule this week. For what it’s worth, yesterday’s Washington Times claimed that the no.1 sports storyline in the area for the month of April was the Capitals’ playoff chase. All three of the team’s remaining games are at home, all of them “must wins,” and beginning tonight, when 18,000-plus fans ”red out” the Phone Booth, there will most assuredly be a playoff atmosphere in the city’s hockey rink.

I’d like to see local media cover the games just like they would the playoffs. We’ve already got a terrific beat reporter on the job for the Post; I’d like to see Tarik joined by the paper’s best photographer, Dan Steinberg blogging near me, and you joining the Cardiac Caps’ party.

We can use this week as a launching pad to a revitalized sports culture in Washington. Southeast D.C. along the Anacostia with its new ballpark is being revitalized — Alexander Ovechkin and the Caps are reviving hockey across town in Northwest.

I never believed that Washington had to be a second- or third-rate sports town, and I thought that one day an athlete so special in his skills, so magnetic in his personality, so dominant in his ability would arrive here and transform our sports culture.

He has.

Hope I see you tonight.

How Does a 5-1 Roadtrip Sound? Caps 3, Cats 0

NHL Playoff Magic Numbers for the Capitals’ Rivals

The Magic Number is a way represent how close a front-running team needs is to clinching its division and/or a playoff spot (to see a detailed magic number description, click here). While usually used for sports with win-loss records, it can still work for hockey. So, with apologies to Chevy Chase’s classic SNL President Ford (”It was my understanding that there would be no math?”), I crunched a few numbers to see where the Capitals’ playoff rivals stand.

Any combination of points gained by the teams listed below, or points left on the table by the Capitals, results in the team’s magic number decreasing. A Capitals regulation loss or CAR/PHI/BOS win reduces the number by two. A Capitals overtime/shootout loss reduces the number by one.

As of Saturday evening, these are the Caps’ key rivals’ magic numbers. Once a team’s magic number reaches zero, the Capitals can no longer pass that team in the standings:

  • Carolina’s Magic Number: 4 (four games remaining [Edit: now 3 games remaining, yet the same magic number. Thank you, Tampa!])
    Yes, technically the magic number is 5 here, but only if three or more of Carolina’s points come via OTLs . . . taking the tiebreaker into account and the fact that only about 7% of their games ended in OTLs, I’m assuming most of their points will be via wins, hence the 4.
  • Philadelphia’s Magic Number: 6 (four games remaining)
    [Edit: Magic number now 4 with three games remaining.
    ]
  • Boston’s Magic Number: 5 (four games remaining)
    [Edit, Sunday evening: Magic number now 4 with three games remaining.]

What if two or more teams remain tied at the end of the regular season, you ask? That was accounted for in the above calculations, but a re-post of the NHL’s tiebreaker rules may sate your appetite for knowledge:

1. The greater number of games won. [e.g., 41-41-0 beats 40-40-2]

2. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any “odd” games, shall be used to determine the standing.

3. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

Let’s assume the first tiebreaker will resolve the issue. The Hurricanes have three more wins that the Capitals with a four-point, so to capture the Southeast the Caps would have to exceed the Canes’ point total to pass them—equaling Carolina’s point total is not good enough, since the Caps would still be one game behind in the win column.

Right now the Caps have 39 wins and 86 points. The Flyers have 39 wins and 89 points, and Bruins have 39 wins and 88 points. . . so if the Caps close the gap with wins (rather than OTLs, for example) and end with the same point total as either team, they’ll have more wins that either the Flyers or Sabres, thus giving the Caps the first tiebreaker for 8th.

Basically, if the Caps and Canes end with the same number of points, the Canes win the division. If the Bruins and/or Philadelphia end with the same point total as the Capitals, the Caps will likely have the first tiebreaker unless two or more of the Caps’ points come via Overtime Losses.

And in such a tightly-contested race, it may come down to that slim of a distinction between playoff hockey and game over.

The Stretch Run, Revisited - Eastern Conference Playoff Bubble

Four days have passed since our original Stretch Run post, so an update to The Playoff Picture table seems in order. The Panthers have stumbled, their loss to Atlanta likely ending their post-season hopes. But not much else has changed as Washington, Buffalo, Boston, Carolina, and Philadelphia have gone 6-1-1 so far this week.

Games are picked as “Toss-Ups,” “Likely Wins,” and “Likely Losses” in the OFB column—original predictions are unchanged for the games already played, but we’ve reevaluated some of the others. We’ve also updated the analysis and added a Results column to track the games played.

The Capitals have fought to within just two points of Philly, Boston, and Carolina; but all three of those teams have a game in hand over the Caps, so the road to the playoffs remains long, and winding. Still, if Washington can continue its winning ways, a post-season berth is certainly within reach.

Looking at the remaining schedule, it seems the only “three-point games” results that could put a double-whammy on the Capitals’ run for 8th are the two Boston-Buffalo tilts . . . and, for a shot at the Southeast crown, the Caps need to beat the Hurricanes in regulation on April Fools’ Day at the Phone Booth.

Here, then, is the updated playoff picture. We’ll revisit it early next week; in the meantime, your input is always appreciated.

The Playoff Picture: Eastern Bubble Teams’ Remaining Games
Team Date H/A Vs. OFB Res Analysis Playoff Chances
Washington 3/25
3/27
3/29
4/1
4/3
4/5
Away
Away
Away
Home
Home
Home
Carolina
Tampa
Florida
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Florida
TU
LW
TU
TU
LW
TU
W
W
.
.
.
.
The Cardiac Caps won the past two in heart-rending fashion, but four points are still four points. The Capitals must take advantage of a disheartened Panthers team on Saturday, since they certainly aren’t receiving help from the teams ahead in the standings. Once the circus leaves town, the Greatest Show on Ice can return home for their final three games.
8th Seed?
Carolina 3/25
3/28
3/29
4/1
4/2
4/4
Home
Home
Away
Away
Home
Home
Washington
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
Washington
Tampa Bay
Florida
TU
LW
LW
TU
TU
LW
OTL
W
L
.
.
.
Suddenly the SE Division Title is no longer a foregone conclusion for Carolina, with only two points separating them and the Capitals. However, they do have a game in hand on the Caps and face the two worst teams in the East this weekend, so they still hold the reins.
SE Div Champs?
Florida 3/25
3/27
3/29
4/1
4/4
4/5
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Tampa
Atlanta
Washington
Atlanta
Carolina
Washington
TU
LW
TU
LW
LL
TU
L
L
.
.
.
.
While not mathematically eliminated yet, two straight losses — and 3 of 4 remaining on the road — pretty much guarantees the Panthers’ playoff drought will continue.
Done
Boston 3/25
3/27
3/29
3/30
4/2
4/4
4/5
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Home
Toronto
Toronto
Ottawa
Buffalo
NJD
Ottawa
Buffalo
TU
LW
TU
TU
LL
LL
LW
W
W
.
.
.
.
.
Boston had an auspicious start this week, eliminating the Leafs and getting four must-have points in the process. Their road gets tougher now as they face a Senators team struggling to hold home ice advantage, then go to Buffalo where the Sabres are fighting for their playoff lives.
Golf in early April?
Buffalo 3/25
3/27
3/28
3/30
4/1
4/3
4/5
Home
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Ottawa
Ottawa
Montreal
Boston
Toronto
Montreal
Boston
TU
LL
LL
TU
TU
LL
LL
L
W
.
.
.
.
.
The Sabres could not afford to lose both games versus Ottawa — and they didn’t. While Buffalo collapsed in the 3rd at home, they staged an impressive Shootout win in Canada’s capital last night. But 4 of 5 against Montreal and Boston likely spells the end of their run unless Ryan Miller notches a couple shutouts.
Golf in early April?
Philadelphia 3/25
3/28
3/29
4/2
4/4
4/6
Away
Away
Away
Away
Home
Home
NYR
NJD
NYI
Pittsburgh
NJD
Pittsburgh
LL
TU
LW
LL
TU
TU
W
OTL
W
.
.
.
A good start for the Flyers, and tonight they face a bruised-and-battered Devils team coming off a heartbreaker of a loss to the Rangers (though one should never bet against Brodeur). Then the black and orange go to Long Island on Saturday for another winnable game. And they’d better win, as their last three games are exceedingly difficult.
7th Seed?

In a Flash, Caps Win in OT: Caps 4 / Bolts 3

Record Setting Night and Two Big Points: Caps 3 / Canes 2 / AO 61 - SO

A Stretch Run That Could Yield a Southeast Facelift

Take a look at the records of these Southeast division teams in their last 10 games:

Carolina: 8-2-0; Washington: 7-3-0; Florida: 8-1-1

That’s a .766 winning percentage by the division’s top three teams in crunch time. All three have entered March as lions. These seem more like performances by Southbeasts than teams from the “Southleast.”


Washington has wins over Nashville, Boston, Calgary, and Buffalo during its run. Carolina took down Ottawa (badly), Chicago, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Florida bested Boston, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers recently. It’s not like these three clubs have been feasting on bottom-dwellers. The result is that, whereas three weeks ago conventional wisdom had only the Southeast winner earning a postseason berth, today there’s serious talk of all three teams qualifying.

Likely that will prove difficult. All three teams, beginning this week, close out their schedules with Southeast-exclusive slates. With a sufficient number of “three-point” games between them, and with the backsliding Bs, the Flyers and Sabres closing out with conspicuously tough matchups, it’s conceivable, but odds are that at least one Southeast club will cool off coming home. Right?

The Southeast has a long, long way to go before achieving anything approaching the respect the East’s other divisions enjoy, but if it is able to qualify more than just its division winner for the playoffs, and if over the next two weeks we see some fantastically competitive and compelling games among the three contenders, it’s difficult to imagine serious hockey fans giving the division more of the back of their hands.

Maybe Alexander Ovechkin is going to raise more than just hockey’s profile in the District, and take his team’s division along for the fun ride as well.

Here’s a look at the way the season’s final half-dozen games break down for contenders for three playoff spots — 3rd, 7th, and 8th — in the East. We’ve identified games at “Toss-Ups,” “Likely Wins,” and “Likely Losses.”

Eastern Contenders’ Remaining Games- as of March 24
Team Date H/A Vs. Res Analysis Playoff Chances
Washington 3/25
3/27
3/29
4/1
4/3
4/5
Away
Away
Away
Home
Home
Home
Carolina
Tampa
Florida
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Florida
TU
LW
LL
TU
LW
TU
Three road games followed by three to finish at home, with the goal being to still be in the hunt when the team returns to Verizon Center. Intriguing storylines: AO may already have a Hart Trophy locked up, but if he carries the Caps to the postseason, that vote may be unanimous? Second: how will Gabby rotate his no. 1 netminders?
8th Seed?
Carolina 3/25
3/28
3/29
4/1
4/2
4/4
Home
Home
Away
Away
Home
Home
Washington
Atlanta
Tampa Bay
Washington
Tampa Bay
Florida
TU
LW
LW
TU
TU
TU
The Canes’ mission couldn’t be clearer: win four of their final six games and they’re assured of the Southeast division crown and the no. 3 seed. And they play four of the final six at home. Nothing’s guaranteed in this dogfight, but of the teams in this list Carolina seems most assured of a post-season appearance.
SE Div Champs?
Florida 3/25
3/27
3/29
4/1
4/4
4/4
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Tampa
Atlanta
Washington
Atlanta
Carolina
Washington
TU
LW
LW
LW
LL
TU
The ‘Cats have some pretty smooth skating all the way until the regular season’s final weekend, when they play back-to-back on the road in Carolina and Washington. Seems imperative for them to win all four that precede . . . which is a tall order.
Golf in early April?
Boston 3/25
3/27
3/29
3/30
4/2
4/4
4/5
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Home
Toronto
Toronto
Ottawa
Buffalo
NJD
Ottawa
Buffalo
TU
LW
TU
LL
LL
LL
TU
Seven games remaining, and not an easy-breather within. Especially trying trio of road games (Buffalo, NJ, Ottawa) to close out March and begin April. Patrice Bergeron is skating with the Bs but not taking contact — he’s an unlikely addition for the tough closing stretch, and the team will miss him.
Golf in early April?
Buffalo 3/25
3/27
3/28
3/30
4/1
4/3
4/5
Home
Away
Home
Home
Away
Away
Away
Ottawa
Ottawa
Montreal
Boston
Toronto
Montreal
Boston
TU
LL
TU
LW
TU
LL
TU
The good news for Buffalo is that they have seven games remaining. The bad news is that all seven opponents have winning records, and four of the games are on the road. It’s simply a very tough final stretch.
Golf in early April?
Philadelphia 3/25
3/28
3/29
4/2
4/4
4/6
Away
Away
Away
Away
Home
Home
NYR
NJD
NYI
Pittsburgh
NJD
Pittsburgh
LL
LL
LW
LL
TU
TU
Four straight road games in the middle of the Flyers’ home stretch — three of them against toughies the Rags, Devils, and Pens. The East’s most inconsistent team in the season’s second half has demonstrated a conspicuous inability to close out games. But they’re atop the heap of wanna-bes this morning, and their recent strong play rebounding from a near-crushing 10-game losing streak should carry them in.
7th Seed?

Odds & Ends

TSN has a poll on their site this morning on the topic of the week. Vote early and vote often! Here are the current results:


Viktor Kozlov- photo courtesy of ajc.com
Viktor Kozlov- photo courtesy of ajc.com
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution featured the following photo on their online Sports section this morning. Apparently there’s a new ladies man in town- Kozlove! Rowr.

Seriously, this is laziness at its best. How hard is it to check a player’s name- especially in a town where they already have a Kozlov? Not to mention that “Viktor” is spelled wrong too. I suspect that Atlanta just doesn’t care anymore, and who can blame them. Two wins in the last 17 games would depress me too.

Over at the AJC’s Thrashers Blog, Craig Custance shared this item:

Mark Recchi is part owner of the Kamloops Blazers in the WHL and his team is taking on Olaf Kolzig’s Tri-City team in the first round of the playoffs, so they have a sidebet going.

Now THAT could get interesting. According to Custance, the Blazers are the underdog, so Olie could make out well on this deal.

And finally, the sharp-eyed OrderedChaos noted this by saying, “Nicklas has not aged well on Yahoo!”:

Nicklas Backstrom- Yahoo! Sports
Nicklas Backstrom- Yahoo! Sports