Comments on: Prospects, Like Fine Red Wine, Take Time

By: OrderedChaos (Mike Rucki)

OrderedChaos (Mike Rucki) — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:09:57 +0000

Pepper, you make a good point, and one that I think is all the more relevant in the salary cap era. Teams are under more pressure to have early performers on the roster — to keep high-end players, teams will continue to need youngsters contributing significantly while their salaries are low.
Ben, I don’t interpret the post to be labeling Kessel a bust. Rather, Kessel is a solid player but one who would have benefited from a year or two of seasoning before being thrust into a prominent NHL role. We’ve seen it before, and close to home — Zubrus, for instance, was rushed into action far too soon by Philly at age 18, and it took him a very long time to become a consistent contributer (in fact it was well after Philly gave up on him). I think to this day that Zubrus would have been a better overall player at 20 or 21 had the Flyers been patient… and likely he’d still be wearing black & orange had they given him time to develop.

By: pepper

pepper — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 20:20:52 +0000

There seems to be more pressure than ever on recent draftees as a result of the cap, as clubs are expecting more great things from entry-level deal years.

By: Rage

Rage — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 17:12:02 +0000

Lee: Cooke didn’t touch Vinny. Lecavalier was blown up by his own man. Let’s not go down this road again.
P&B: I disagree with you regarding Morin. If the guy was a Hobey Baker candidate, it’s not like the scouts slept on his ability. People knew about him and chose not to draft him. Now, if he makes it to the NHL, you can say our scouts did a better job evaluating his ceiling than others. But that they found him in the 9th could indicate a host of things (including a willingness to place faith in college awards such as the HB) other than/including excellence.
Let’s not forget that we continue to see high to mid draft picks cut by this team. Stephen Werner (3rd rounder, if I remember correctly) being the latest.

By: Burgh

Burgh — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 16:58:50 +0000

I think that fans have also been spoiled of late with a surge of young draftees making the bigs (and making an impact) almost immediately. It’s difficult, especially as a fan of a rebuilding team, to be patient for highly acclaimed youngsters to contribute.

By: TG

TG — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 16:54:47 +0000

So you mean that people should remember that Emminger is only 24? Or that Green, Morrisonn, etc. are all just kids? Whoa, logic being used. I gotta restart my brain here. I’m not used to fans thinking/acting rationally…

By: Lee (PTO)

Lee (PTO) — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 16:33:56 +0000

I wonder if Vinny’s recovered from that beating he took in the 2nd-to-last regular season game? Cooke blew him up on, what I thought was, a shady play near the bench. We really needed that game though, and the Bolts folded like Origami after they lost him…

By: James

James — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:56:28 +0000

Good blog. Vinny has been signed by the Lightning for that lifetime. TB has loved him since the begining, even more for bringing the cup home and still do after finishing last this past season.

By: Ben

Ben — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:58:39 +0000

Just want to point out: you lament fans for labeling kids as busts too soon. Yet Phil Kessel gets the implicit “bust” label for shortcutting AHL seasoning. He’s from the Backstrom draft. Why you hatin’ on the Kess-man??

By: Greg

Greg — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:41:02 +0000

Great article.
Just to add:
Fehr missed a full year due to injury so it is hard to say he failed to meet expectations. Being out for that long and not being able to do much of anything when he was still developing set him back a bit. So any expectations placed on him for this past season should have been minimal if anything.

By: OrderedChaos (Mike Rucki)

OrderedChaos (Mike Rucki) — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 14:30:48 +0000

To continue Pucks’ wine-prospects analogy: Some wines are thought to be better in their youth & to have better aging potential than they really have. And no matter how long they mature, some just turn brownish and flat rather than maturing into quality beverages (c.f. Jakub Cutta). So it’s important to make good early assessments, but the results are hard to verify for a while.
OK, my analogizing muscles are a bit worn out now.