NHLnumbers.com is an invaluable resource for monitoring the allotments of millions of dollars to NHL players, and judging your team’s standing in relation to the NHL’s salary cap. It also allows you to play armchair GM a bit during the offseason, and fantasy-negotiate with your team’s restricted and unrestricted free agents. The salaries and contract duration for every NHL player — as well as those on two-way deals –are delineated there. The numbers there aren’t iron-clad accurate, but the accounting of them is sourced from multiple, reliable venues, including the NHLPA, and they ought to be I think accorded credibility while also afforded latitude for the at times complex financial arrangements teams have with individual player contracts.
Long before the Caps were crowned Southeast division champions last month team management knew that its player costs for 2008-09 would be appreciably higher. Even with Olie Kolzig’s departure the January contract extension for Alexander Ovechkin and the performance of restricted free-agent-to-be Mike Green assured that. And, obviously, Kolzig must be replaced.
To appreciate, though, just how significant a hike in payroll the team will endure, I calculated only the on-the-books-for-next season contract commitments. Those numbers confirm that the rebuild is over.
Keep in mind that the Caps will have counting against their cap hit a healthy number of players who may not play for them next season. Chris Bourque, for instance, may or may not make the club, but he will earn $525,000 from the team. Ben Clymer almost assuredly will not play for the club, but he will earn $1.1 million next season.
(In 2007, the Caps had a buyout with Nolan Yonkman that counted for $75,000 against the cap. They paid Frederic Cassivi $40,000. That’s pretty much peanuts when you’re talking tens of millions of dollars in a cap, but it’s illustrative of how a payroll balance sheet in the NHL has more on it than just the 20-odd sweaters skating on the sheet below you on a given regular season night.)
The Caps spent about $11 million on defensemen last season — and one million of that went to Clymer. They spent just a hair under $7 million in net. The bulk of that obviously went to Kolzig. Goaltending won’t necessarily be cheaper next season as in addition to resigning Huet or another no.1 at a premium price, both Simeon Varlamov and Michal Nuevirth will move into pro careers with the organization.
And the team spent just about $23 million on forwards in 2007-08.
Deadline acquisitions such as Huet and Sergei Fedorov are prorated against the cap, which is particularly helpful in a case such as Fedorov’s, as Columbus picked up the lion’s share of his $6-million-plus salary last season.
According the NHLnumbers, the Caps by early spring 2008 were on the hook for just under $42 million in salaries and bonuses counted against the cap — whereas at season’s start, when the team was closer to $39 million in payroll, it had about $12 million of cap room to spare. One of the reasons George McPhee was able to be so aggressive at the February trade deadline was the cap space he had this past season. Look for him to have a lot less of that in 2008-09.
Recall that when hockey returned post-lockout in 2005-06, the salary caps was at $39 million. In 2006-07, it jumped up to $44 million. This past season it stood at $50.3 million. The salary cap was envisioned as a system of cost controls for the owners, but in three short years it sure has risen fast, hasn’t it? Draw your own conclusions, but recall how the resolution of the 2004-05 labor impasse was characterized — with the owners having the players over a proverbial barrel. I’m not sure it’s quite worked out that way.
We won’t know for some months still what the salary cap will be for 2008-09, but educated guesses peg it in the mid-fifties-million range.
| Player | ‘07 - ‘08 Salary Cap Hit | ‘08 - ‘09 Salary |
| Alexander Ovechkin | $3,830,000 | 9,000,000 |
| Alexander Semin | $1,300,000 | 4,200,000 |
| Mike Green | $833,000 | Brinks truck |
| Cristobal Huet | $630,000 | Brinks truck |
| Chris Clark | $1,050,000 | $2,750,000 |
| Nicklas Backstrom | $2,400,000 | $2,700,000 |
Accounting for just those players’ salaries on the team’s books for 2008-09, NHLnumbers has the Caps committed to forty one and a half million dollars for next season. Alexander Ovechkin’s salary accounts nearly a quarter of that. Moreover, consider that the ranks of the unsigned for next season include a no.1 netminder; Mike Green; Sergei Fedorov; Brooks Laich; Matt Cooke; Matt Bradley; Shaone Morrisonn; Steve Eminger; Boyd Gordon; Eric Fehr; and Quintin Laing.
Oh, and Karl Alzner.
Now Brian Pothier’s $2.5 million is included in that $41 million-plus figure, and his future is quite uncertain. But even if the Caps were to gain cap relief for Pothier, the signing of just Green, Alzner and a goalie, you have to figure, is going to push the payroll fairly close to $50 million. Conceiveably, that might leave the Caps with less than $5 or $6 million of cap space to sign seven or eight name bodies familiar to Caps’ fans. And of course, no NHL team wants to be pressed hard against the cap.
To state the obvious, it will be George McPhee’s most challenging offseason in terms of player contract negotiations and cap management.
18 Comments
I cannot find the $41 million dollar figure you mentioned on the nhlnumbers.com. At the bottom of the table for the Caps, I see $34.816 million, which is significantly less than the $41+M you talk about (about enough to pay for a top goalie). Please clarify where you found that number. Thanks…
Thanks for the solid post. These numbers support what I’ve already felt; no more free rides on this bus! Cooke, Eminger, Bradley, and Gordon, beware. Fehr gets a free pass because of his injury, and Laich and Mo made their case this season. I just hope we have the space for S-Fed!
Are you using their salaries, or their cap hits? Ovechkin’s cap hit is ~9.4 each year, not 9.
As for the others, I’m beginning to think it less and less likely that Alzner will make the team (unless he blows us away at camp), just because we don’t really have the space. I look for Eminger to be given a real shot next year, and Lepisto as well (to replace Pothier). The only way I really see Alzner getting serious time is if Jurcina is moved.
Varlamov and Neuvirth probably won’t play for the Caps at all next season, so no worries there about thier cap hits; Machesney could factor in, but he’s cheaper than the other two. Laing may already be signed (nhlscap disagrees with nhlnumbers here, and nhlscap has always been the more reliable). Gordon should be qualified, and probably nothing more (same for Eminger, and perhaps Fehr I imagine). Mo shouldn’t be too expensive, and I don’t expect Cooke back at all (no roster space, Brads is cheaper). Green and Huet (and, to a lesser extent, Laich) are the x-factors here, and could give us trouble.
It’ll be interesting to see how GMGM manages things this offseason, but it looks like we’ll be ok, we just probably won’t be able to dip into free agency, at least not with anyone big.
$50-55 million is where the Caps will probably end up for ‘08-’09. Aside from Green and Huet, the big unknown is Pothier. If he goes on long-term injury, his salary comes off the books and Lepisto’s cap-friendly $675,000 replaces it. With the difference they could possibly go out and find a serviceable stay-at-home defenseman in the $1.5 million range.
I am scared.
Fear not, Ben. True, the task is daunting, and something the team and GMGM haven’t had to deal with before to this extent.
But the Capitals’ impending salary/cap juggling is nothing compared to teams like the Rangers, Penguins, and others brushing up against (and occasionally exceeding) the cap. New territory for the Caps, sure — yet hardly impassable territory.
this is getting pricey - I’m curious because no one has mentioned it - Michael Nylander? is he back? I seem to recall he’s a little pricey as well.
You know the more years pass with the salary cap, and the more I think about it, it’s the guys at the bottom of the depth chart who are going to suffer. While they improve and their salaries increase they become replaceable. To be successful now will require a Patriots-like model of constant replenishment with young (read: cheap) role players.
Looking down into the stable of prospects, doesn’t it seem likely that guys like Gordon, Bradley, Jurcina, Eminger will soon be replaced by their young doppelgangers?
Ben gets the prize!!!
Avoiding salary cap hell means a few stars get paid, and cheap role players have to overperform. It’s as simple as that - witness Tampa Bay.
What do I win? How about the chance to be a 4th line winger? I come cheap. Actually, I’ll do it for free. I’m 24 and athletic and I haven’t had a cigarette since last night!
Hank, look at “Total Cap Hit” in the bold column at the bottom. The $41 million number is the current cap hit.
A couple things strike me about that list.
1) Nylander needs to seriously kick some arse next year to justify that salary. Especially considering the team improved without him. I know he was playing hurt, but another sub-par season and this becomes an $11m toilet flush.
2) “Playoffs” Semin needs to be present for 82 games. Nagging injuries and inconsistent performance can’t be included for $4.5 mil + per.
3) Love Mike Green. But I don’t think he has yet earned crazy money. He’s young, had one very nice season, and still has some deficiencies on the defensive end. I would like to see more before giving him a mega-deal. I need more Nicklas Lidstrom and less Sandis Ozolinsh.
4) Plan on Alzner blowing us away at camp and being on this team as a top 4 defenseman.
5) The sooner Pothier is off our books, the better.
And as I think about it, I really hate that the max is 20% of the cap. It strikes me as odd that the NHLPA doesn’t realize that this is detrimental to it’s core membership. Something in the 12-15% range would have been a lot less detrimental to team continuity.
Continuing congrats to this blog. I think back to scores, hundreds, thousands of absolutely dim wit message board posts since the Jagr sell-off from folks lacking the grasp of $ and player/prospect details and dynamics not to envision and anticipate the tensions of today, as framed so well here. The number of lugs and slugs they wanted us to sign or pick up on waivers or chase as UFAs — e.g., Mogilny, McGillis, the dinosaur Dmen in Toronto, mediocre goalies, etc., etc. You name it, they wanted us to grab it and howled when we did not. I can remember less than dozen folks who really “got” it, who could see the future. Most of them are writing blogs now. Thank goodness. Meanwhile, one of the dumbest bells I can think of is still a beat writer for a major DC paper. He still has big following among some fans. Figures. Harsh? Yeah. I adore smart and abhor stupid.
If GMGM is really good, he may be able to convince guys to sign for less in order to play with the most exciting hockey player in the world.
Meanwhile, the two top guys on your list may very well enter the preseason camp as World Champions.
There will be at least one Washington Capital World Champion.
Not to rain on your parade Sov, but the World Championships are like the NIT of hockey. They can be interesting but the best players are rarely playing for most teams. It does not rival something like the Canada Cup or Olympics. Speaking of which, bring back the Canada Cup and leave the Olympics to the juniors or amateurs.
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