On Frozen Blog

Four days have passed since our original Stretch Run post, so an update to The Playoff Picture table seems in order. The Panthers have stumbled, their loss to Atlanta likely ending their post-season hopes. But not much else has changed as Washington, Buffalo, Boston, Carolina, and Philadelphia have gone 6-1-1 so far this week.

Games are picked as “Toss-Ups,” “Likely Wins,” and “Likely Losses” in the OFB column–original predictions are unchanged for the games already played, but we’ve reevaluated some of the others. We’ve also updated the analysis and added a Results column to track the games played.

The Capitals have fought to within just two points of Philly, Boston, and Carolina; but all three of those teams have a game in hand over the Caps, so the road to the playoffs remains long, and winding. Still, if Washington can continue its winning ways, a post-season berth is certainly within reach.

Looking at the remaining schedule, it seems the only “three-point games” results that could put a double-whammy on the Capitals’ run for 8th are the two Boston-Buffalo tilts . . . and, for a shot at the Southeast crown, the Caps need to beat the Hurricanes in regulation on April Fools’ Day at the Phone Booth.

Here, then, is the updated playoff picture. We’ll revisit it early next week; in the meantime, your input is always appreciated.

The Playoff Picture: Eastern Bubble Teams’ Remaining Games
Team	Date	H/A	Vs.	OFB	Res	Analysis	Playoff Chances
Washington	3/25 3/27 3/29 4/1 4/3 4/5	Away Away Away Home Home Home	Carolina Tampa Florida Carolina Tampa Bay Florida	TU LW TU TU LW TU	W W . . . .	The Cardiac Caps won the past two in heart-rending fashion, but four points are still four points. The Capitals must take advantage of a disheartened Panthers team on Saturday, since they certainly aren’t receiving help from the teams ahead in the standings. Once the circus leaves town, the Greatest Show on Ice can return home for their final three games.	8th Seed?
Carolina	3/25 3/28 3/29 4/1 4/2 4/4	Home Home Away Away Home Home	Washington Atlanta Tampa Bay Washington Tampa Bay Florida	TU LW LW TU TU LW	OTL W L . . .	Suddenly the SE Division Title is no longer a foregone conclusion for Carolina, with only two points separating them and the Capitals. However, they do have a game in hand on the Caps and face the two worst teams in the East this weekend, so they still hold the reins.	SE Div Champs?
Florida	3/25 3/27 3/29 4/1 4/4 4/5	Away Home Home Away Away Away	Tampa Atlanta Washington Atlanta Carolina Washington	TU LW TU LW LL TU	L L . . . .	While not mathematically eliminated yet, two straight losses — and 3 of 4 remaining on the road — pretty much guarantees the Panthers’ playoff drought will continue.	Done
Boston	3/25 3/27 3/29 3/30 4/2 4/4 4/5	Away Home Home Away Away Away Home	Toronto Toronto Ottawa Buffalo NJD Ottawa Buffalo	TU LW TU TU LL LL LW	W W . . . . .	Boston had an auspicious start this week, eliminating the Leafs and getting four must-have points in the process. Their road gets tougher now as they face a Senators team struggling to hold home ice advantage, then go to Buffalo where the Sabres are fighting for their playoff lives.	Golf in early April?
Buffalo	3/25 3/27 3/28 3/30 4/1 4/3 4/5	Home Away Home Home Away Away Away	Ottawa Ottawa Montreal Boston Toronto Montreal Boston	TU LL LL TU TU LL LL	L W . . . . .	The Sabres could not afford to lose both games versus Ottawa — and they didn’t. While Buffalo collapsed in the 3rd at home, they staged an impressive Shootout win in Canada’s capital last night. But 4 of 5 against Montreal and Boston likely spells the end of their run unless Ryan Miller notches a couple shutouts.	Golf in early April?
Philadelphia	3/25 3/28 3/29 4/2 4/4 4/6	Away Away Away Away Home Home	NYR NJD NYI Pittsburgh NJD Pittsburgh	LL TU LW LL TU TU	W OTL W . . .	A good start for the Flyers, and tonight they face a bruised-and-battered Devils team coming off a heartbreaker of a loss to the Rangers (though one should never bet against Brodeur). Then the black and orange go to Long Island on Saturday for another winnable game. And they’d better win, as their last three games are exceedingly difficult.	7th Seed?