On Frozen Blog

In inventorying the season’s first half with an eye toward what the Caps must do with their second to break through to the postseason, one must divide October through December into their own halves: Glen Hanlon’s and Bruce Boudreau’s. It’s a fair bet that we won’t see the likes of a 6-14-1 run in 2008 — particularly if elusive roster health ever arrives. There is good reason for optimism, some key weak areas to remedy, and the overarching task of playing exceptionally winning hockey ahead. More specific observations:

(1) The Lightning have the look of a cellar dweller. It appears to be a four-team race in the Southeast for the postseason.

(2) The surest way to the postseason is to finish first in the Southeast. The Caps are 7 points back of the Hurricanes, who are 4-5-1 in the their last 10. A significant but hardly daunting endeavor.

(3) There is cause to be seriously concerned with the Atlantic division. It is the division of the losing streak thwarters: Lundqvist and Brodeur. And Sidney. All five teams within have credible shots at 90-plus points this season. The sturdy Atlantic could gobble up five postseason berths, and with Ottawa and Montreal looking as strong as they have, this would leave only the Southeast division winner with a dance card.

(4) Olie Kolzig needs rest. A rather serious rotation with BJ seems imperative. The Caps’ final seven games of the season are against the Southeast division — four on the road at the end of March and the final three at home. You have to figure that if the Caps are still in the postseason hunt come March 25, Kolzig would get all seven of those starts. He needs R & R and he needs it soon.

Kolzig needs rest, but he also needs improved play no matter what his second-half workload requires. This morning there are 35 goalies in the league with better numbers than his. Most glaring is his .890 save percentage. You gotta figure that if it’s not above .900 come late March the Caps will not have leapfrogged a half dozen teams in the East and surged in or near the conference’s eighth spot.

Only Montreal among East teams can match the Caps’ 5-2-3 run in their last 10 games, but the Caps’ competitiveness under Bruce Boudreau is all the more impressive in light of the fact that it’s occurred sans the team captain, and recently without the likes of Alex Semin, minutes-eater Tom Poti, and a viable backup netminder. The Caps are 20th in the league in power play efficiency, at 16.7 percent. If they can move that up just a percentage point or so they’d enter the league’s top half of extra-man excellence. This would help the team accumulate more points in the second half.

On the penalty kill, the Caps are again in the bottom third — 21st in the league, at 81 percent. Clark and Poti are key performers here, and both should be returned soon. It would be both wise and beneficial to move up to say 17th or 18th in the league here.

First periods tell us a good bit about this Caps’ club. When they trail after the first period, they come back to prevail just about 27 percent of the time. When they lead after one, they win about 70 percent of the time. Fast starts should be a motto to the second half.

Now for the rough stuff. The good news for the Caps is that they’ve encountered only two shootouts thus far. The bad news is they lost both. The worse news is that they’re virtually certain to see more of them in the second half. The Caps are simply going to have to find a way to win two out of every three shootouts they confront in the second half, elst they’ll merely tread water in the East, picking up a point in the setbacks while a conference rival earns two. This really could be the team’s undoing in the back half: the Caps last won a shootout on February 4, 2007, against the Isles.

So five keys to postseason qualification:

(1) Health. Bumps and bruises are inevitable in NHL life, but bad ones in bunches are not. It’s immensely appealing to ponder the impact that the fresh and repaired bodies of Chris Clark and Alexander Semin could have on a stretch run.

(2) A rested and rejuvenated Olie Kolzig. Today he has the numbers of an overworked 37-year-old netminder.

(3) Modest but important uptick in specialty team performance.

(4) Turnaround in shootout suckitude.

(5) Go serial killer on the Southeast. Four games remain against each of Florida, Atlanta, and Carolina; three remain with Tampa. At a minimum, you’d think, the Caps would have to go something like 8-4-3 in this slate. Clearly, they’re going to have to pass Florida and Atlanta to have a plausible shot at the postseason.

Turns out, Leonsis was right — the rebuild is over. The Caps are winning about 60 percent of their games under Bruce Boudreau. They’ll need to do even better in the second half if they want more fun with Ottawa.