December offers a particularly terrific gift for hockey fans — the World Junior Championships, or what many in hockey regard as the greatest of hockey tournaments. This year’s Worlds will be contested in the Czech Republic, with the U.S. opening on December 26 against Kasakhstan. The Canadians this week conducted their determinative evaluation camp, and the results are in: Caps’ property Karl Alzner and Josh Godfrey will represent the three-time defending champions. In fact, Alzner is a candidate to captain the team. Mathieu Perreault, another invitee, was returned to Acadie Bathurst. The Canadians, as ever, will be strong and pre-tourney favorites. They will lack the elite starpower of championship years past, but they will have no rivals in roster depth.
The United States, however, is confronting a hard reality with this year’s tournament: they are victims of their own development success. Typically, even the highest of NHL draft picks rarely makes his drafting team’s roster in his draft year, but that’s precisely what’s happened with Patrick Kane (Chicago), whose dominant performance in last year’s WJC launched him toward elite status for this past June’s draft. Additionally, 2006 no. 1 overall pick Erik Johnson, eligible for this year’s Worlds, is busy patrolling the St. Louis Blues’ blueline. And another 2006 American draft gem and WJC eligible, Peter Mueller, is having a solid rookie season for Wayne Gretzky’s Phoenix Coyotes.
I had a chance this week to chat a bit with an NHL scout I interviewed here last year, one whose coverage is with the U.S. college ranks, and the impact of Johnson’s and Kane’s absenses to the Americans this month was, to him, crystal clear. The Americans are lunchpalers without them and gold medal gamers with them.
The Americans won’t be devoid of talent, but heavy burdens will fall principally on James Van Riemsdyk (New Hampshire; Philadelphia) and Kyle Okposo (Minnesota; NY Islanders). They have decent skill on the blueline, but then there’s perhaps the team’s biggest concern — in goal. That’s where things may get ugly for the U.S.
pucksandbooks: To the layman’s eye, this looks to be as weak a team as the U.S. has fielded at the World Jrs. in years. Fair impression?
NHL Scout: Team USA is severely hampered this year by guys like Johnson and Kane being in the NHL and unable to play. Add those two and you’ve got a completely different team. Overall, this is a team that lacks high end skill outside of Van Riemsdyk and possibly Okposo (who I see often here in Minnesota) and Schroeder. For some perspective, I don’t think anyone but Van Riemsdyk would crack Canada’s Top 6 forwards. Teams are going to be able to focus their best checking line exclusively on Van Riemsdyk. Add Kane, and you could break the two up and make teams pick their poison. If Okposo and Van Riemsdyk don’t play together, there will be a lot of pressure on Okposo to take the heat off of Van Riemsdyk.
pucksandbooks: A reasonably likely U.S. lineup would look like . . . ?
NHL Scout:
Jordan Schroeder-Colin Wilson-James Van Riemsdyk
Rhett Rakshani-Kyle Okposo-Max Pacioretty
Tyler Ruegsegger-Mike Carman-Bill Sweatt
Ryan Flynn-Matt Rust-Blake GeoffrionBobby Sanguinetti-Ian Cole
Jonathon Blum-Jamie McBain
Kevin Montgomery-Bill StraitJeremy Smith
Joe Palmer
Doing the power play and penalty kills would be difficult, because it depends on the coach’s thoughts. If they want a big guy in front to take up space, Flynn might be a PP guy. If they go all skill, Flynn might not see a minute of PP time the entire tournament. Watch for some combination of Sanguinetti, Blum, Montgomery, and Schroeder to run the point on the PP. Strait, Cole, and McBain will see a great deal of penalty kill time.
pucksandbooks: A followup — Looking at the team, are there any of the fringe players that you felt could have been replaced by other players?
NHL Scout: Team USA will probably be judged by how some of these fringe players play. They took Ryan Flynn over Eric Tangradi. Most scouts I’ve talked to were shocked by that, as Tangradi gives you the same size and same physical play, but with better skating and hands. Flynn is just a fourth liner, Tangradi could fit in on the second line.
They took Cade Fairchild, Chris Summers and Kevin Montgomery over Kevin Shattenkirk, Ryan McDonagh, Zach Bogosian, and Mike Ratchuk. Fairchild probably will not end up playing much. He’s a very good college defenseman and his inclusion is probably more about preparing him for next year, when he should make the team. But the other three college defensemen named are pretty good themselves. I’ve heard Shattenkirk has been up and down this year, but he was a high first round pick, comes from the [USNDTP] program, and possesses great offensive abilities. McDonagh is similar, although he’s a little more of a two-way guy than Fairchild, with a little less offense. Ratchuk and Fairchild are very similar, except for the fact that Ratchuk’s older, bigger, more developed, and won a National Championship this year. I haven’t seen much of Montgomery since he left Michigan, but I know he was a fringe pick that many Canadian scouts aren’t that high on.
Summers is Team USA getting a little cute. He spends some time at forward and some at defense, although I’ve been told that Phoenix will make him a full time forward when he gets out. I’m not sure I understand the pick — it’s not like you’re building for a long season and the versatility is nice. There are better defensemen than him, and better forwards than him . . . why not take one of them? Now they have 8 D and only 12 forwards . . . what are the odds of having to use 8 D?
They took a forward in Carman who hasn’t played a game this year. Now, I really like Carman as a player and I know he’s been there before. But he’s going to be rusty at first. Is there someone I would have taken over him? I don’t know for sure, but they better hope he’s in playing shape.
pucksandbooks: How bad in the goaltending situation?
NHL Scout: Smith is a very solid, if unspectacular goalie. I was surprised they took Palmer over Unice. Palmer has an .880 save percentage in the NCAA. One scout who does exclusively college hockey told me he thought Palmer was one of the worst goalies in the college game. I don’t see as much college as he does, but the game I saw Ohio State play Palmer cost him the game. Team USA pretty clearly went with a college goalie because they want to encourage kids to play college hockey instead of going to Canada. They took a college kid who came up through the NTDP, so they’re comfortable with him and his personality. I would say Team USA better hope Smith stays healthy.
pucksandbooks: Who if anyone lurks as a sleeper American prospect as we’ve seen with the likes of Kane and VanRiemsdyk and Kessel in years past?
NHL Scout: Colin Wilson is the only draft eligible player on the roster. He is a smart, developed, tough player, but he isn’t flashy like the guys you listed. Schroeder is available in 2009. Pacioretty was a high pick, but I think he’ll really come into his own in this tournament. I would keep an eye on him.
pucksandbooks: Is it Canada’s tournament to lose?
NHL Scout: Probably, yes. Canada is deep enough that they can afford to lose guys like Toews and Gagner. The U.S. is not as talented. That said, it’s an emotional, pressure-filled tournament. I think Team USA thinks they have hard working, character kids who will work hard and not concede anything. I don’t think this is a team that will get blown out much, but they won’t blow anyone out either. They’ll need second line scoring to emerge, and they’ll have to hope Smith can make big saves when it matters.
2 Comments
What about Teddy Ruth. He’s American, right? He’s tearing it up for the Irish. Who’d thought the hockey team would surpass the football team, and the hockey facilities are disgraceful.
Geez, I would have thought this would yield a bunch of comments. I guess not everyone gets as excited to learn about prospects as me (or perhaps they don’t have the same desire to say ‘I told you so’?)
Post a Comment