On Frozen Blog

We are now full on in the throes of the end of the offseason’s offseason (mercifully, AMC last night offered up an 8:00 airing of ‘Slapshot,’ perhaps as a bit of a kickoff to the NHL’s off-ice action this month). By that I mean that any moment now we could see cross the transom the first of what typically is a string of trades clubs make to commence their offseason rebuilding. This June the pre-draft dealing buzz isn’t quite what it was last, but I’ve seen too many Draft-Eve seasons to know better. The first shoe will eventually drop, and off we’ll be. And unlike last June, when the Caps were just out of the first turn in its rebuild race, this summer management has pledged to be an active player for new players.

Likely we won’t see a blockbuster like last June’s Panthers’ dealing of Roberto Luongo (for junk; and we may not see such lopsidedness again in this lifetime). Then again, we may see Patrick Marleau moved. The game within the game taking place now through next Friday night involves the leagues GMs sorting through their UFA and RFA lists, comparing last season’s payroll with ‘07-’08’s projected cap, and charting a course for correction and improvement. For some clubs, payroll will be pared and some prime players moved. For others (the Caps), payroll will increase, assets added. A fair bit of this correction will take place over the course of the next 10 days.

Beyond being super submerged below the salary cap (by like tens of millions of dollars), this summer the Caps have consistently and publicly pledged to address their roster remedies through “trades,” Hershey graduations, and potentially the UFA market. In all of their public statements about offseason upgrades, all of management has consistently IDed dealing as a planned strategem, which struck me as brazen in its confidence. Notable, effective deals require willing dance partners. Two to tango. In mid-April, how could Caps’ management have been assured of them come mid-June?

The answer may not be all that secret or surprising. Because of the team’s plethora of draft picks dating back to 2002, and coupled with the Hershey Bears’ fabulous success the past two seasons, GM George McPhee has strong cards in his dealing hand. He is, for instance, loaded at left wing. And after last June’s work by his scouts in Vancouver, the organization suddenly seems deep in net. He is perhaps only a year or so away from being enviably deep on the blueline. And again with this Entry Draft, he has multiple picks up high (two picks each in rounds one and two). Add to these factors the team’s unrivaled cap space, and the Caps clearly are a power player on the phones the next 10 days.

Yesterday I heard the first of what struck me as a well-conceived trade rumor involving the Caps. It had the Caps moving the 5th overall pick should Czech right wing prospect Jacub Voracek slip to #5. The interested party would be division rival Tampa. Now blockbuster deals are seldom made among division rivals, but the Bolts are in a curious spot: a one-line outfit pressed hard against the cap, without much glimmer of deep playoff viability as currently comprised, and badly in need of some cheaper production and better balance up front. The Caps of course have a big-time need for a big-time, front-line right wing. Tampa could relieve a lot of cap pressure by dealing Brad Richards. He’s a terrific player, in his prime. But he’s armed with a deal that carries him through 2011 at $7.8 million per, so: how attractive to his present employer are Richards’ 26, 23, and 25 goals over the past three seasons? That was a panic signing by Jay Feaster.

In the days and weeks leading up the the NHL trade deadline this past February, Steve Eminger was an ongoing heathy scratch, leading a lot of media to speculate that his days in D.C. were numbered. Obviously, either the packages for Eminger weren’t right in mid-winter or the Caps want to exercise more patience with their 23-year-old rearguard. But Mike Green’s offensive outburst in Hershey this spring may make Eminger more deal-able than he appeared three or four months ago. And Jeff Schultz is on a fast-track to D.C. himself.

Tomas Fleischmann is going to play in the NHL, but will it be in Washington? I think that answer may well arrive in the next 10 days.

Obviously there is help to be had on the open market a week after the draft, but Leonsis and his hockey management team have regularly, and prudently, in my judgment, reminded fans that high-end free agent signings rarely deliver value. (In this regard, a Brad Richards acquired in a trade may not as well.) The advantage of addressing roster needs via trade is that often you’re dealing only with one other GM and his demands, as opposed to bidding among a dozen or more on the open market and thereby inflating players’ value.

One other point to ponder. With regard to the past three Stanley Cup champions, I can think of only one genuinely significant, July 1-ish free agent acquisiton among them (Scott Niedermeyer in Anaheim). The Lightning, Hurricanes, and Ducks were assembled through solid drafting, generally wise trading, and patient player development. A blueprint for success.

Update:  Darren Dreger on the the Fan590 in Toronto claims he has three confirmed insiders reporting that Dave Nonis is angling for a deal for the draft in trading either Bourdon, Ohlund, or Morrison (one of these players, not all) and that Nonis is dangling Corey Schneider as trade bait or as part of a possible package deal so that the Canucks can move up in the draft this year. During the interview Dreger reported that the Canucks are heavily pursuiting the number 3rd 4th and 5th spot. (Phoenix, LA Kings, and Washington)