The Nick Backstrom signing is exciting in and of itself, but it also breeds a bit of an anticipatory momentum: in this summer of change, what’s next? And what’s next may arrive sooner than you think, if you’re inclined to believe that the Caps will sit by idly and patiently await July 1’s arrival. I’ll wager a 50-lb. bag of Purina dry food for fighting dogs that they don’t.
At a minimum, the Caps need a top-line center and a top-pairing defenseman. At a minimum. Insofar as forward additions are concerned, however, General Manager George McPhee seemingly must inventory his organization’s holdings of future top-6 talent before potentially inking an expensive and name free agent to a long-term deal. Tier I UFAs at any position don’t sign one- or two-year deals, and while perhaps only Tomas Fleischmann down on the farm is primed for front-line promotion this fall, behind him, rather near-term, there are more big-minute men mere modest seasoning away. If the Caps sign one or two high-priced free agent forwards this summer, to deals keeping them in Caps’ sweaters solidly into the next decade, what happens to the team’s high-end kids? Do they all get dealt?
A big questionmark envelops right wing Eric Fehr these days. He has a wonky back, and it’s not showing much sign of improvement from treatment this spring. But assuming his recovery, there can be no denying his future fixture on one of the Caps’ top two lines. Soon.
Last weekend the Patriot News’ Tim Leone told me that Chris Bourque is a virtual lock to skate center or wing on Hershey’s top line next season. His coach told me earlier this spring that CBourque’s a future NHLer. Should that come to fruition, it won’t be on the Caps’ or anyone else’s third or fourth lines. He’s a playmaker with high-end hockey sense, and his season of rapid development now has a lot of the Caps’ brass thinking him a year away from being ready. At most.
Here are some more prospect names wholly unsuitable for third- and fourth-line duty: Francois Bouchard, the leading scorer in the Q this past season (some observers think he’s in play for a Caps’ wing spot this fall) and Mathieu Perreault, its MVP. Perreault seemingly has a good deal of physical development to pursue, and he can be stashed back in the Q this coming season and subsequently in Hershey for a couple of seasons . . . unless this Denis Savard lookalike talk has substance behind it. But Bouchard appears ready for assignment in the American League pronto, and his apprenticeship there seems likely to be of the short-term schedule.
On the day that Andrew Gordon was signed last month I asked GM McPhee about him, and he told me that Gordon would start in Hershey this fall but that there was a healthy chance he’d be an in-season callup. I’m not convinced that his ceiling as a pro is in checking line roles. His 100-plus points and All-Conference designation within college hockey’s premiere power conference certainly don’t suggest it. Lee Stempniak, a Blues’ mid-round pick who put up big numbers in the ECAC, is proof that campus lightning can strike later in the draft. We do know that Gordon left St. Cloud with more buzz than Stempniak did. Just sayin.
It’s just one opinion, but recently ESPN’s John Bucchigross gave vent to a fresh line of thinking about what could be the Caps’ primary offseason strategy. He mentioned a single trade idea, one many of us have long pined for (Patrick Marleau), and then replied to his letter writer, “If I were the Capitals . . . I would stay put, keep playing the young players and keep collecting top-10 picks. Teams make mistakes when they overpay for average players. That is death.”
The beauty of an acquisition via trade is that you inherit a much shorter contract term, affording the receiving team enviable and, seemingly in the Caps’ case, much-need flexibility.
Conventional wisdom — both within and outside the Caps’ organization — is that the team is heavy on third- and fourth-line talent both on the current parent roster and in the development pipeline. That’s the easiest assessment to make. And it may well be the most accurate. But with such an abundance of highly drafted talent, more recently combined with award-winning and all-conference earning distinctions acquired lower in the draft, I say watch out for one or two front-line breakthroughs. Soon. I’d like it to happen here.
18 Comments
I dont see us having prospect depth as a problem when going to recruit free agents. The future of Bouchard, Perreault, Bourque, etc is a very good thing. Say we build like Buffalo, which had scoring depth down all 4 lines. It wont be a problem for us to roll 4 scoring lines, with the grit that Ovie, Pettinger, and Clark afford us, it provides enough toughness. Brashears not paid too much to sit most games until we need him such as what Buffalo did with Peters. 3 scoring lines and a 4th shutdown line that all play equal minutes is a very good thing and could be very well a possibility with the bright future our guys have.
Will Marleau (or someone similar) be enough to satisfy the howling from the fans? How much would they have to give up to get him? Will the team, instead of breaking the bank for a forward, do what you did, look at what’s in the pipeline, and instead offer a big contract to Rafalski (or another defenseman), and make modest free agent signings among the forwards?
Honestly, I keep going back and forth on what I think they should do. It seems that it’s harder to find top level defenseman than it is top level forwards, and that a forward playing above his level hurts the team less than a defenseman doing so. (See Miller on a line with Jagr. Simon with Oates. Etc.)
I’m thinking that I’d prefer the team to go and sign a top level defenseman (I’m partial to Rafalski), and go the mid-level route for forwards (Nylander, incentive-laden deal for Forsberg, trade for Marleau, etc.). That leaves room for the kids in Hershey, shores up the bigger weakness, and slides the defenders down a bit into a more natural/comfortable role.
Will this placate the fans at large? Probably not, but like you said, it’s probably the smarter hockey move.
Sorry, forgot one more point. I know lots of people are willing to cut Emminger free. But I’m not so sure that he could still turn out to be a solid player, the type that everyone would want on their back line. Just remember how young he is, and how rare it is for defensemen to be anywhere near competent until their mid-20’s (at least).
Donald,
The analogy you draw with Buffalo is intriguing, and not without merit, in my judgment. The only problem with it as far as being a blueprint goes, it seems, is that for all of the Sabres’ high-powered success in the regular season, they’ve failed with consecutive 100-pt.-plus clubs in the postseason, and now appear in danger of being significantly dismantled, either by management or player agents, this summer. As you noted, the Sabres didn’t have a shut-down line. Ottawa’s first line sure called for it.
I agree with most of what’s said, but where is it written that the third line has to be a grind line? There are plenty of teams that roll 3 lines of skilled forwards with the 4th line being their shut down/energy line. And while veterans are certainly better suited for 3rd or 4th line roles (since they don’t need more ice time to grow and mature) if a prospect is heavy on talent and can take some defensive responsibility, there’s no reason they can’t be brought up.
I think I speak for a lot of us when I say thats its so frustrating to watch your team lose. But, I think the Caps are on the right track. They are collecting draft picks, which is great potential trade bait. They are carefully developing prospects, who have the added benefit of being in the playoffs (its great fun to get up to Hershey and check out Flash, Bourque, Steckel, Green, Schultz and the rest). There is no doubt that the Caps will need to sign free agents to fill some of the holes (you guys have ID’d the big roles that need filling), but we also need to build a club that is a perennial contender. That means careful and wise free agent signings, good scouting and drafting, player development, etc.
I also think GMGM has done a pretty decent job of ID’ing and acquiring talent via trades…Jurcina and Morrisonn quickly pop to mind there.
I would much rather go through another couple seasons of rebuilding then do what so many teams do — sign flashy, expensive free agents to get you to the playoffs and ignore the need for a solid base.
Anyway, losing builds character:)
Grumpy — the Caps’ third line is the one area that I see in super solid shape at present, anchored by Boyd Gordon. And it’s one going forward that I do see generating decent offensive production. Matt Pettinger is a quality left winger with a bit of offensive pop to his game. I’ve long felt that he could play a 20-goal role on a strong third line, playoff Caps’ club.
Shmee: you and I are of one mind about the rebuild blueprint and most particularly a construction for the long haul. Problem is, I think we’re in the distinct minority. Not just among fans, but even club officials. When I recently expressed the view that 85 pts. next season, with playoff contention solidly into late March, would represent a marked improvement, I had a club official tell me that wasn’t good enough. But I’m like you — I not looking for a brief grasp at glory but rather a durable one.
Thats too bad about the club attitude…I have heard the grumblings about this being McPhee’s last season to “prove” himself, but I think he has done a pretty good job with what is at hand. I would hate for there to be a do or die mentality this season and for GMGM/Hanlon have to face the consequences for that. I think Hanlon has handled this club well. The Caps just are not there yet. I couldnt agree with you more that an 85 point season and playoff contention would show considerable improvement.
This next years team does need an influx of veteran talent on D and a forward or two. I think the real question is if GMGM is going to have a knee jerk reaction and swing for the fences in free agency…for some reason I believe they will remain sensible and stick with ‘the plan’.
I won’t be surprised if they grab a 2nd tier FA dman and top 6 forward and maybe trade for a veteran center.
I’d love for the caps to make the playoffs but even looking at the great young players you have now they haven’t hit their prime yet.
The Caps grasp the necessity of making the right moves this offseason to contend for the playoffs next year.
But the key to sustaining success is being consistently accurate in determining which guys you can and cannot forget about, factoring in the cap. It’s a far more inexact science and far easier to make mistakes here than to just target a #1 center and d-man.
I’m confident the Caps will do what it takes this offseason, but past that, too early to tell. In a sense, it’s almost dangerous to stockpile so much talent. But I’ll take the gamble.
I’m not convinced that any of our forward prospects are “championship team” first two liners, or even “deep into the playoffs team” top gunners. But I don’t have a scout’s eye and haven’t really seen any of them except the few that have played a bit for the Caps.
What I do tend to agree with here is that, above all else, the top defenseman must be had and that’s probably only going to happen via free agent signing. So I’d support the approach of - sign top defenseman and make “second-tier” moves to augment our scoring lines.
If the casual fan balks at the dearth of signings, particularly of forwards, in the off-season, let them come to the arena around January and enjoy some crow while watching a Caps team solidly in the playoff hunt. (However, if we do not make the big move on defense, by signing or otherwise, I will be right there at the head of the disgruntled masses.)
As Anaheim shows, a pair of superstar backliners plus plucky young forwards plus top goalie gets you to the SCF.
I think every team needs a shutdown line, and the Caps have a potentially very good one, but whos to say we cant turn our 3rd line into more of a scoring line, and have the 4th line be the Gordo line. With that kind of depth theres no such thing of “4th Line Minutes” becuz those guys can eat up good minutes and wear down defenses. It was obvious Buffalo didnt have a shutdown line and Ottawa did. Theres a good thing happening when you can roll all 4 lines with each line adding something rather than roll 2 scoring lines the checking line and a 4th line to give those guys a break. 4 solid lines is the mark of a great team and the lack of that is the reason Tampa is at home
I just got my copy of the Hockey News’ Draft Preview in the mail. They make note of the fact that GMGM has considerably beefed up the scouting ops for the Caps and is a frequent scout himself at tourneys. Good news for fans.
What has anyone heard about the possibility of signing Zubrus? I know when the trade happened we were thinking that he would be back with us this season. I personally think that we do need Zubrus back in addition to a top 2 D and a top line center.
Zubrus is exactly what the Caps don’t need, an overpaid average player. Plus, he’s hurt.
I don’t believe the team needs Zubrus… if he were interested in playing 2nd line wing for a reasonable price, perhaps. But he’s no top-two center.
OrderedChaos, that’s true. And I think that’s why he did well in Buffalo is that he was a winger, not a center.
I think they’ll do with Zubrus what they did with Halpern. They’ll make a decent/reasonable offer, but they won’t overpay for him. And if he can find a better offer somewhere else, more power to him.
I wouldn’t even bother. The Caps already made a more than reasonable offer before the deadline for a guy who:
- pre-Ovechkin, never tallied more than 43 points in a season.
- is about to have his knee scoped again.
- isn’t a #1 center.
- has a lot of miles on him for a 29 year old.
When the dust settles, Zubie will regret not taking the Caps’ final offer.
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