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THN: There's a Science to Shootouts

By pucksandbooks -  November 24, 2006

In the cover story of the Nov. 21 THN, Ken Campbell examines the dos and don'ts of shootouts. THN analyzed 230 attempts in 28 shootouts from the season's start through November 6. The piece's most startling observation arrives early and is telling: "Few teams do anything more than pay cursory attention to the shootout."

Only eight or ten New York Rangers, Campbell claims, typically linger after practice formally ends and join a shootout contest, in which the stakes are supremely high: bottles of orange juice. Campbell observes:
Don't these people realize each team averaged 10 games that went to a shootout last season? Do your homework, study the competition, be completely prepared to win the extra point and you might win 7 of those 10 games. Fly by the seat of your pants, go with a hunch and see what happens and you win 3 of those 10 shootouts.

And what would those extra shoout wins do for the team that did yeoman's research? Well, if you're the Maple Leafs, Atlanta Thrashers or Vancouver Canucks last year, that would've been enough to just get you into the playoffs. And just getting into the playoffs last year for the Edmonton Oilers translated into 11 extra home games."


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1 Comment on "THN: There's a Science to Shootouts"

#1

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Posted by J Payson, December 2, 2006 3:41 PM

This is a study worth following.
You need to look at location (distance from goal) of shot as well. Shots taken too close to the goal are low percentage. I observe that most shooters are too late, hence the low success numbers. The time to release the shot is an instant before the goalkeeper starts backing up. If coming with speed, this usually means at the line drawn though the face-off dots.

If a player prefers deke attempts, he should shoot sometimes, and vice-versa. This reduces ability of keepers to have a "book" on the shooters. His approach to the net should look the same for either, including a shoulder fake at the ideal shooting point, then continue to the goal mouth for deke. Most effective is anything that puts the puck high, because the goal keeper will sprawl to cover maximum width of the net.

jp

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