With all the well-deserved talk about how many shots the Caps netminders face every night, one question has yet to be answered: Does it really matter?
Shot quality is not addressed by the official NHL stats, so simply looking at shot totals doesn’t 
tell the whole story. Forcing opposing shooters to take low-percentage, bad-angle shots by funneling them to the outside edges certainly helps, and Coach Hanlon has said that is a major part of his defensive strategy. But given the generally accepted hockey mantra of “shoot the puck and good things will happen,” even poor shots on net tend to generate the chance of a lucky bounce or a garbage goal from a rebound.
Darren Elliot of Sports Illustrated does believe that shots matter. His latest SI column lists the shot differentials for every team thus far, and he discusses how it correlates to a team’s success. The Capitals are dead-last with -9.0 per game, followed by the Penguins at -7.1. To paraphrase his conclusion: Poor shot differentials generally lead to poor win-loss records, though top-notch goaltending can help compensate for the disparity. He highlights several exceptions to the shot differential trend, including the Caps:
Now consider the other end of the spectrum: the Capitals and Penguins. Each night, they experience a shot-differential deficit on average of about nine and seven shots respectively.
Both are young, scrappy developing teams with explosive offensive talent up front (Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin in Washington and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in Pittsburgh) and promising defensive corps that are inexperienced. That puts more pressure on the goaltending, which in both cases has responded and been a difference-making element of the fine starts in each city.
The Caps have the veteran tandem of Olaf Kolzig and Brent Johnson — both proven battlers — while Marc-Andre Fleury has had a breakthrough start to the season for the Penguins and is showing signs of delivering consistently on his highly regarded physical skills. Thanks in large part to the play in net, the Caps and Pens have managed to hang tough in their respective divisions.
Speaking of shots on goal, be sure to check out Mike Vogel’s excellent article on goalie masks. Great photo of Glen Hanlon from his playing days wearing that heinous Canucks Flying V sweater.
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